Match preview
France are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 66%. Only a poor recent run (four-from-five) gives Senegal a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why France are favourites (66%)
- France carry the higher Elo rating (+290 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- France won 4 of their last five (4W 1L)
- Senegal mixed recent form (2W 1D 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 66% / 15% / 19% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
France are expected to control possession and territory, while Senegal will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early France goal would force Senegal to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: France 2 · Senegal 0.6
Quick stats
France — last 5
- Wv Northern Ireland3–1
- Lv Ivory Coast1–2
- W@ Colombia3–1
- W@ Brazil2–1
- W@ Azerbaijan3–1
Senegal — last 5
- D@ Saudi Arabia0–0
- L@ USA2–3
- Wv Gambia3–1
- Wv Peru2–0
- Lv Morocco0–3
Head to head
No recent meetings on record between these sides.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.