Match preview
France are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 59%. Only a poor recent run (three-from-five) gives Senegal a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why France are favourites (59%)
- France carry the higher Elo rating (+287 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- France won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Senegal won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 59% / 18% / 23% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
France are expected to control possession and territory, while Senegal will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early France goal would force Senegal to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: France 1.9 · Senegal 0.7
Quick stats
France — last 5
- Wv Belgium4–1
- Dv Italy1–1
- W@ Belgium1–0
- W@ Türkiye1–0
- Lv England4–6
Senegal — last 5
- W@ Comoros1–0
- W@ Ethiopia1–0
- D@ Mozambique1–1
- L@ Belgium2–3
- Wv Iraq5–0
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 16M. Maignan G
- 5J. Kounde D
- 4D. Upamecano D
- 17W. Saliba D
- 19T. Hernandez D
- 8A. Tchouameni M
- 14A. Rabiot M
- 11M. Olise M
- 7O. Dembele M
- 20D. Doue M
- 10K. Mbappe F
- 16E. Mendy G
- 15K. Diatta D
- 3K. Koulibaly D
- 19M. Niakhate D
- 25M. Diouf D
- 5I. Gueye M
- 26P. Gueye M
- 18I. Sarr M
- 8L. Camara M
- 10S. Mane M
- 11N. Jackson F
Key matchups
France's focal point in attack against the heart of Senegal's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Senegal's main outlet — how France's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.