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WORLD CUP 2026 · Wednesday, 17 June 2026 at 05:00 BST
Austria
3 – 1
Jordan

Match preview

Austria are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 61%. Only a poor recent run (mixed) gives Jordan a way in.

61%
Austria
17%
Draw
22%
Jordan
Model fair odds
Austria
1.64
Draw
5.88
Jordan
4.55

Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.

Austria
61%
Draw
17%
Jordan
22%
Elo rating: 1811 vs 1651 (+160)
Recent form: DDWWL vs DDLLL
Host advantage: Neutral venue
Model verdict: 61% / 17% / 22%
Most likely scores
Austria 1–0 (14%)
Austria 2–0 (13%)
Draw 1–1 (10%)
Austria 2–1 (9%)
Why Austria are favourites (61%)
  • Austria carry the higher Elo rating (+160 points)
  • Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
  • Austria mixed recent form (2W 2D 1L)
  • Jordan winless in their last five (2D 3L)
  • Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)

These factors combine to produce the 61% / 17% / 22% verdict above.

Expected match pattern

Austria are expected to control possession and territory, while Jordan will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early Austria goal would force Jordan to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.

Expected goals: Austria 1.9 · Jordan 0.7

Quick stats

MetricAustriaJordan
Elo rating18111651
Last 5 record2W 2D 1L2D 3L
Goals last 594
Goals conceded last 589
Clean sheets last 501

Austria — last 5

  • D@ Kosovo1–1
  • D@ Rep. Of Ireland2–2
  • Wv Kosovo3–1
  • Wv Israel3–1
  • L@ Spain0–3

Jordan — last 5

  • Dv Venezuela0–0
  • Dv Syria1–1
  • Lv Argentina1–3
  • Lv Algeria1–2
  • L@ Austria1–3

Head to head

17 Jun 2026
Austria
3 – 1
Jordan

Confirmed lineups

Austria · 4-2-3-1
  1. 1A. Schlager G
  2. 5S. Posch D
  3. 15P. Lienhart D
  4. 8D. Alaba D
  5. 16P. Mwene D
  6. 6N. Seiwald M
  7. 4X. Schlager M
  8. 18R. Schmid M
  9. 20K. Laimer M
  10. 9M. Sabitzer M
  11. 14S. Kalajdzic F
Jordan · 3-4-2-1
  1. 1Y. Abulaila G
  2. 3A. Nasib D
  3. 5Y. Al Arab D
  4. 16M. Abualnadi D
  5. 23E. Haddad M
  6. 21N. Al Rashdan M
  7. 8N. Al Rawabdeh M
  8. 20M. Abu Taha M
  9. 11O. Al Fakhouri
  10. 9A. Olwan F
  11. 10M. Tamari F

Key matchups

S. Kalajdzic vs Y. Al Arab

Austria's focal point in attack against the heart of Jordan's defence.

R. Schmid vs N. Al Rashdan

The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.

A. Olwan vs P. Lienhart

Jordan's main outlet — how Austria's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.

Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.