Match preview
Argentina are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 67%. Only a poor recent run (four-from-five) gives Algeria a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Argentina are favourites (67%)
- Argentina carry the higher Elo rating (+390 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Argentina unbeaten and winning in their last five (4W)
- Algeria won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 67% / 15% / 18% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Argentina are expected to control possession and territory, while Algeria will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Argentina goal would force Algeria to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Argentina 2.1 · Algeria 0.5
Quick stats
Argentina — last 5
- Wv Iceland3–0
- Wv Honduras2–0
- Wv Zambia5–0
- D@ Qatar?–?
- Wv Mauritania2–1
Algeria — last 5
- W@ Bolivia4–0
- W@ Netherlands1–0
- Dv Uruguay0–0
- Wv Guatemala7–0
- Lv Nigeria0–2
Head to head
No recent meetings on record between these sides.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.