Match preview
Spain are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 78%. Only a poor recent run (four-from-five) gives Cape Verde Islands a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Spain are favourites (78%)
- Spain carry the higher Elo rating (+479 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Spain unbeaten and winning in their last five (5W)
- Cape Verde Islands winless in their last five (2D 3L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 78% / 15% / 7% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Spain are expected to control possession and territory, while Cape Verde Islands will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early Spain goal would force Cape Verde Islands to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Spain 2.1 · Cape Verde Islands 0.5
Quick stats
Spain — last 5
- W@ Croatia2–1
- Wv Czechia3–1
- Wv Croatia4–1
- W@ England3–2
- Wv Argentina1–0
Cape Verde Islands — last 5
- Lv Rwanda1–2
- L@ Mali1–3
- L@ Argentina2–3
- Dv Saudi Arabia0–0
- D@ Uruguay2–2
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 23U. Simon G
- 5M. Llorente D
- 22P. Cubarsi D
- 14A. Laporte D
- 24M. Cucurella D
- 8F. Ruiz M
- 16Rodri M
- 20Pedri M
- 7F. Torres F
- 21M. Oyarzabal F
- 9Gavi F
- 1Vozinha G
- 22S. Moreira D
- 4R. Lopes D
- 3D. Borges D
- 13S. Lopes Cabral D
- 6K. Lenini M
- 20R. Mendes M
- 15L. Duarte M
- 10J. Monteiro M
- 7J. Cabral M
- 19D. Livramento F
Key matchups
Spain's focal point in attack against the heart of Cape Verde Islands's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Cape Verde Islands's main outlet — how Spain's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.