Match preview
Iran are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 51%. Only a poor recent run (winless) gives New Zealand a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Iran are favourites (51%)
- Iran carry the higher Elo rating (+207 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Iran winless in their last five (3D 2L)
- New Zealand mixed recent form (1W 2D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 51% / 20% / 29% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Iran are expected to control possession and territory, while New Zealand will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Iran goal would force New Zealand to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Iran 1.6 · New Zealand 1
Quick stats
Iran — last 5
- L@ Russia0–2
- L@ Uzbekistan1–3
- D@ Egypt1–1
- D@ Belgium0–0
- Dv New Zealand2–2
New Zealand — last 5
- L@ Japan1–2
- D@ Panama1–1
- W@ China3–0
- D@ Palestine2–2
- D@ Turkmenistan?–?
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1A. Beiranvand G
- 23R. Rezaeian D
- 4S. Khalilzadeh D
- 19A. Nemati
- 5M. Mohammadi D
- 8M. Mohebi M
- 14S. Ghoddos M
- 6S. Ezatolahi M
- 17A. Yousefi M
- 20S. Moghanlou F
- 9M. Taremi F
- 1M. Crocombe G
- 2T. Payne D
- 16F. Surman D
- 5M. Boxall D
- 13L. Cacace D
- 6J. Bell M
- 8M. Stamenic M
- 20C. McCowatt M
- 10S. Singh M
- 11E. Just M
- 9C. Wood F
Key matchups
Iran's focal point in attack against the heart of New Zealand's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
New Zealand's main outlet — how Iran's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.