Match preview
Belgium are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 55%. Only a poor recent run (one-from-five) gives Egypt a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Belgium are favourites (55%)
- Belgium carry the higher Elo rating (+211 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Belgium mixed recent form (2W 3L)
- Egypt mixed recent form (1W 2D 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 55% / 19% / 26% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Belgium are expected to control possession and territory, while Egypt will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Belgium goal would force Egypt to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Belgium 1.8 · Egypt 0.8
Quick stats
Belgium — last 5
- L@ France1–4
- Wv Türkiye3–0
- Lv France0–1
- W@ Italy2–0
- L@ Spain1–2
Egypt — last 5
- Lv South Africa0–1
- W@ South Sudan5–0
- Dv Angola0–0
- L@ Argentina2–3
- D@ Australia1–1
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1T. Courtois G
- 15T. Meunier D
- 25N. Ngoy D
- 4B. Mechele D
- 21T. Castagne D
- 24A. Onana M
- 8Y. Tielemans M
- 10L. Trossard M
- 7K. De Bruyne M
- 11J. Doku M
- 17C. De Ketelaere F
- 23M. Shobeir G
- 3M. Hany D
- 2Y. Ibrahim D
- 14H. Fathy D
- 13A. Fatouh D
- 19M. Attia M
- 17M. Lasheen M
- 11M. Ziko M
- 10M. Salah M
- 8E. Ashour M
- 22O. Marmoush F
Key matchups
Belgium's focal point in attack against the heart of Egypt's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Egypt's main outlet — how Belgium's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.