Match preview
Ecuador carry the rating edge but it's not large. Either side could nick it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Ecuador are favourites (39%)
- Ecuador carry the higher Elo rating (50 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Ivory Coast won 4 of their last five (4W 1L)
- Ecuador unbeaten and winning in their last five (3W 2D)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 37% / 24% / 39% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Ecuador should shade possession but the gap is small enough that midfield control will decide territory. With little between the sides on ratings, a set piece or an individual moment is the most likely difference — expect a competitive game where the first goal heavily shapes what follows.
Expected goals: Ivory Coast 1.2 · Ecuador 1.4
Quick stats
Ivory Coast — last 5
- W@ Philadelphia Union II2–0
- W@ France2–1
- W@ Scotland1–0
- W@ South Korea4–0
- L@ Egypt2–3
Ecuador — last 5
- Wv Guatemala3–0
- Wv Saudi Arabia2–1
- D@ Netherlands1–1
- D@ Morocco1–1
- Wv New Zealand2–0
Head to head
No recent meetings on record between these sides.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.