Match preview
Genuine coin flip on Elo (-8 points). Recent form fractionally favours Ivory Coast.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why the model can't split them
- Elo ratings nearly level (-8 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Ivory Coast won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
- Ecuador mixed recent form (1W 2D 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 43% / 23% / 34% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
The model sees no meaningful ratings edge, so expect a cautious opening with both sides wary of conceding first. Fine margins decide games like this — the first goal is worth more than usual, because the side that scores it can manage the game state from there.
Expected goals: Ivory Coast 1.4 · Ecuador 1.2
Quick stats
Ivory Coast — last 5
- Lv Cameroon0–1
- W@ Somalia2–0
- Wv Ghana2–0
- Lv Norway1–2
- W@ Curaçao2–0
Ecuador — last 5
- Dv Panama1–1
- D@ Japan0–0
- L@ South Korea0–3
- L@ Mexico0–2
- Wv Germany2–1
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1Y. Fofana G
- 17G. Doue D
- 5W. Singo D
- 20E. Agbadou D
- 3G. Konan D
- 11Y. Diomande M
- 8F. Kessie M
- 6S. Fofana M
- 24B. Toure M
- 19N. Pepe F
- 12E. Wahi F
- 1H. Galindez G
- 21A. Franco D
- 4J. Ordonez D
- 6W. Pacho D
- 3P. Hincapie D
- 9J. Yeboah M
- 23M. Caicedo M
- 15P. Vite M
- 14A. Minda M
- 19G. Plata F
- 13E. Valencia F
Key matchups
Ivory Coast's focal point in attack against the heart of Ecuador's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Ecuador's main outlet — how Ivory Coast's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.