Match preview
Germany are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 55%. Only a poor recent run (mixed) gives Curaçao a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Germany are favourites (55%)
- Germany carry the higher Elo rating (+304 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Germany mixed recent form (1W 3D 1L)
- Curaçao won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 55% / 19% / 26% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Germany are expected to control possession and territory, while Curaçao will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Germany goal would force Curaçao to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Germany 1.8 · Curaçao 0.8
Quick stats
Germany — last 5
- D@ Greece0–0
- Wv Serbia2–0
- Lv Greece0–1
- D@ Netherlands1–1
- Dv Paraguay1–1
Curaçao — last 5
- D@ Trinidad and Tobago1–1
- Wv Trinidad and Tobago1–0
- Wv Nicaragua6–1
- W@ Costa Rica4–3
- Lv Ivory Coast0–2
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1M. Neuer G
- 6J. Kimmich D
- 4J. Tah D
- 15N. Schlotterbeck D
- 18N. Brown D
- 23F. Nmecha M
- 5A. Pavlovic M
- 19L. Sane M
- 10J. Musiala M
- 17F. Wirtz M
- 7K. Havertz F
- 1E. Room G
- 5S. Floranus D
- 23R. Bazoer D
- 18A. Obispo D
- 24D. Fonville D
- 8L. Comenencia M
- 10L. Bacuna M
- 7J. Bacuna M
- 21T. Chong M
- 9J. Locadia F
- 12S. Hansen F
Key matchups
Germany's focal point in attack against the heart of Curaçao's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Curaçao's main outlet — how Germany's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.