Match preview
Scotland the better side on paper but Haiti's recent run keeps this competitive.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Haiti are favourites (38%)
- Scotland carry the higher Elo rating (100 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Haiti won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
- Scotland mixed recent form (1W 1D 3L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 38% / 24% / 38% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Haiti should shade possession but the gap is small enough that midfield control will decide territory. With little between the sides on ratings, a set piece or an individual moment is the most likely difference — expect a competitive game where the first goal heavily shapes what follows.
Expected goals: Haiti 1.3 · Scotland 1.3
Quick stats
Haiti — last 5
- L@ Costa Rica0–2
- W@ Dominican Republic4–1
- Wv Costa Rica2–0
- Wv Trinidad and Tobago3–2
- L@ Morocco2–4
Scotland — last 5
- Lv Slovenia1–2
- W@ FYR Macedonia2–0
- Lv Switzerland0–3
- D@ Slovenia0–0
- Lv Brazil0–3
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1J. Placide G
- 2C. Arcus D
- 4R. Ade D
- 5H. Delcroix D
- 8M. Experience D
- 11L. Deedson M
- 17D. Jean Jacques M
- 10J. Bellegarde M
- 15R. Providence M
- 20F. Pierrot F
- 18W. Isidor F
- 1A. Gunn G
- 2A. Hickey D
- 5G. Hanley D
- 13J. Hendry D
- 3A. Robertson D
- 17B. Gannon-Doak M
- 4S. McTominay M
- 19L. Ferguson M
- 7J. McGinn M
- 20L. Shankland F
- 10C. Adams F
Key matchups
Haiti's focal point in attack against the heart of Scotland's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Scotland's main outlet — how Haiti's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.