Match preview
USA are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 49%. Only a poor recent run (mixed) gives Paraguay a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why USA are favourites (49%)
- USA carry the higher Elo rating (+124 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- USA won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
- Paraguay mixed recent form (2W 2D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 49% / 21% / 30% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
USA are expected to control possession and territory, while Paraguay will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early USA goal would force Paraguay to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: USA 1.6 · Paraguay 1
Quick stats
USA — last 5
- L@ Türkiye2–3
- Wv Australia2–0
- Wv Paraguay4–1
- Lv Germany1–2
- Wv Senegal3–2
Paraguay — last 5
- D@ Germany1–1
- Dv Australia0–0
- W@ Türkiye1–0
- L@ USA1–4
- Wv Nicaragua4–0
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 24M. Freese G
- 16A. Freeman D
- 3C. Richards D
- 13T. Ream D
- 5A. Robinson D
- 4T. Adams M
- 17M. Tillman M
- 2S. Dest M
- 8W. McKennie M
- 10C. Pulisic M
- 20F. Balogun F
- 12O. Gill G
- 4J. Caceres D
- 15G. Gomez D
- 3O. Alderete D
- 6J. Alonso D
- 8D. Gomez M
- 14A. Cubas M
- 16D. Bobadilla M
- 10M. Almiron M
- 9A. Sanabria F
- 19J. Enciso F
Key matchups
USA's focal point in attack against the heart of Paraguay's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Paraguay's main outlet — how USA's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.