Ladies Day | Wednesday 11th March 2026 | 4:00pm | Grade 1, 2m
Last updated: January 2026 | Data source: HorseRaceBase
The Champion Chase 2026 is the ultimate two-mile chase championship at the Cheltenham Festival. Speed, jumping precision, and raw class decide this Grade 1 contest over 13 fences. Our Champion Chase 2026 trends analysis reveals why backing the favourite here loses money – and where the real value lies for punters targeting this prestigious race.
💰 The Value Angle
2nd favourite: 45% strike rate, +21 profit
The favourite wins just 27% and loses money (-5.44). Back the second choice.
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Recent Champion Chase 2026 Contenders: Past Winners
| Year | Winner | Trainer | Age | SP | Last Run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Marine Nationale | B Connell | 8 | 5/1 | Dublin Chase (2nd) |
| 2024 | Captain Guinness | H de Bromhead | 9 | 17/2 | Dublin Chase (3rd) |
| 2023 | Energumene | W Mullins | 9 | 6/5F | Dublin Chase (2nd) |
| 2022 | Energumene | W Mullins | 8 | 5/2 | Irish Champion Chase |
| 2021 | Put The Kettle On | H de Bromhead | 7 | 17/2 | Game Spirit (3rd) |
| 2020 | Politologue | P Nicholls | 9 | 6/1 | Desert Orchid (5th) |
| 2019 | Altior | N Henderson | 9 | 4/11F | Clarence House (1st) |
| 2018 | Altior | N Henderson | 8 | EvensF | Clarence House (1st) |
Key pattern: 2024 and 2025 winners both came from PLACED finishes in the Dublin Chase, not winning it. Dublin Chase winners are 0/6 at Cheltenham!
Champion Chase 2026: The Winner's Profile
Market Position (Last 15 Years)
| Position | Runs | Wins | Win% | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite | 11 | 3 | 27% | -5.44 |
| 2nd Favourite | 11 | 5 | 45% | +21.00 |
| 3rd Favourite | 12 | 2 | 17% | +3.00 |
| 4th Favourite | 11 | 1 | 9% | +1.00 |
| 5th+ Favourite | 44 | 0 | 0% | -44.00 |
This is NOT a favourite's race. The 2nd favourite has nearly double the strike rate (45% vs 27%) and returns +21 profit. 5th favourite or bigger has ZERO winners from 44 runners.
⚠️ Short-Priced Favourites Struggle
Odds-on favourites (less than Evens): 1/4 (25%)
Only Altior (4/11 in 2019) delivered. Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded failed at cramped odds.
Odds Bracket
| Odds | Runs | Wins | Win% | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 1/2 | 4 | 1 | 25% | -2.64 |
| 1/2 - 10/11 | 4 | 0 | 0% | -4.00 |
| Evens - 6/4 | 2 | 2 | 100% | +2.20 |
| 9/2 - 6/1 | 7 | 4 | 57% | +17.50 |
| 17/2 - 12/1 | 15 | 3 | 20% | +16.00 |
| 14/1+ | 45 | 0 | 0% | -45.00 |
Sweet spot: 9/2 - 6/1 with 57% strike rate and +17.50 profit. The 14/1+ outsiders have ZERO winners from 45 runners – this is a class race.
Age
| Age | Runs | Wins | Win% | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1 | 0 | 0% | -1.00 |
| 7 | 18 | 2 | 11% | -3.00 |
| 8 | 28 | 3 | 11% | -16.50 |
| 9 | 25 | 4 | 16% | -4.94 |
| 10 | 10 | 2 | 20% | +8.00 |
| 11+ | 7 | 0 | 0% | -7.00 |
9-10 year olds are the sweet spot. 10yo returns +8 profit. The 11+ brigade have zero wins. Experience matters in this championship race.
Last Time Out Position
| LTO Position | Runs | Wins | Win% | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Won LTO | 31 | 4 | 13% | -16.14 |
| 2nd LTO | 22 | 2 | 9% | -12.50 |
| 3rd LTO | 15 | 3 | 20% | +6.20 |
| 5th LTO | 5 | 2 | 40% | +14.00 |
Counter-intuitive finding: Horses who finished 3rd or 5th LTO outperform LTO winners! The market overvalues recent wins.
Champion Chase 2026 Key Trials: Where Winners Come From
Clarence House Chase (Ascot, January) 🔥🔥🔥
THE DOMINANT TRIAL
Clarence House → Champion Chase: 10 wins from 34 runners, +30.42 P/L
Winners include: Altior (2018, 2019), Sprinter Sacre (2013, 2016), Master Minded (2008, 2009), Dodging Bullets (2015), Sire De Grugy (2014)
| Trial Race | Runners | Wins | Win% | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarence House Chase | 34 | 10 | 29% | +30.42 |
| Tied Cottage Chase | 8 | 4 | 50% | +19.25 |
| Game Spirit Chase | 18 | 4 | 22% | -3.12 |
| Dublin Chase (DRF) | 6 | 2 | 33% | +9.50 |
| Tingle Creek | 4 | 2 | 50% | +5.75 |
| December Leopardstown G1 | 4 | 1 | 25% | +5.50 |
| Desert Orchid Chase | 4 | 1 | 25% | +2.00 |
| Ascot Chase | 6 | 1 | 17% | -1.50 |
Dublin Chase – The Complicated Trial
⚠️ Dublin Chase Winners FAIL at Cheltenham
Dublin Chase WINNERS → Champion Chase: 0 wins from 6 runners
Chacun Pour Soi won the Dublin Chase THREE times but never completed a Champion Chase. El Fabiolo (2024 winner) pulled up. Min never won at Cheltenham.
BUT... Dublin Chase PLACED horses have produced 2 Champion Chase winners:
- Marine Nationale (2025) – 2nd Dublin Chase → WON Champion Chase
- Captain Guinness (2024) – 3rd Dublin Chase → WON Champion Chase
- Energumene (2023) – 2nd Dublin Chase → WON Champion Chase
The angle: Back Dublin Chase PLACED horses, not the winner.
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Champion Chase 2026: Trainer & Jockey Stats (Last 15 Years)
Top Trainers
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Win% | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicky Henderson | 6 | 3 | 50% | +3.36 |
| Henry de Bromhead | 15 | 3 | 20% | +16.00 |
| Paul Nicholls | 10 | 2 | 20% | +2.50 |
| Willie Mullins | 14 | 2 | 14% | -8.30 |
| Barry Connell | 1 | 1 | 100% | +5.00 |
Henderson (50%, +3.36) and de Bromhead (20%, +16) are the value trainers. Mullins has volume but loses money.
Top Jockeys
| Jockey | Rides | Wins | Win% | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico de Boinville | 5 | 3 | 60% | +4.36 |
| Paul Townend | 7 | 2 | 29% | -1.30 |
| Rachael Blackmore | 6 | 1 | 17% | +3.50 |
| Harry Skelton | 3 | 1 | 33% | +4.00 |
| Sean Flanagan | 1 | 1 | 100% | +5.00 |
Nico de Boinville dominates: 60% strike rate, +4.36 profit. Altior and Sprinter Sacre's man knows how to ride this race.
Official Rating
| OR Range | Runs | Wins | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 160 | 24 | 2 | 8% |
| 160-169 | 38 | 2 | 5% |
| 170-175 | 15 | 6 | 40% |
OR 170-175 is the sweet spot: 40% strike rate. The very best two-mile chasers operating at the highest level.
Champion Chase 2026: Current Market (January 2026)
| Horse | Best Odds | Trainer | Key Form |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Nationale | 9/4 F | B Connell | DEFENDING CHAMPION. 2nd Dublin Chase 2025. |
| Il Etait Temps | 11/4 | W Mullins | Rising star. Potential Champion Chase type. |
| Majborough | 7/1 | W Mullins | Progressive French import. |
| Sir Gino | 10/1 | N Henderson | Champion Hurdle contender - dual entry. |
| L'Eau du Sud | 12/1 | W Mullins | Exciting novice chaser. |
| Solness | 16/1 | J P O'Brien | Won Dublin Chase 2025. 4th Champion Chase 2025. |
| Quilixios | 20/1 | H de Bromhead | Fell last when leading 2025 Champion Chase! |
| Thistle Ask | 20/1 | - | Outsider. |
| Jonbon | 25/1 | N Henderson | 2nd 2025 Champion Chase. 10yo in 2026. |
Analysis: Marine Nationale (9/4 F) 🔥
✅ TICKS THE KEY BOXES: Defending champion at 9/4 is unusual value. He's now the FAVOURITE – but he came from 2nd Dublin Chase 2025, NOT winning it. Dublin Chase placed horses have won the last 3 Champion Chases!
Positives:
- ✅ DEFENDING CHAMPION
- ✅ 9yo in 2026 (sweet spot age)
- ✅ Won 2025 from 2nd Dublin Chase (the EXACT winning path)
- ✅ Barry Connell/Sean Flanagan (100% record)
- ✅ OR 159 (within range)
Concern:
- ⚠️ Now favourite (27% SR, -5.44 P/L historically)
- ⚠️ But NOT odds-on, so avoids the 1/4 trap
Analysis: Il Etait Temps (11/4) 🔥🔥
TINGLE CREEK WINNER → CHAMPION CHASE: 2 wins, +0.75 P/L
Il Etait Temps won the 2025 Tingle Creek by 9L from Jonbon – that's a serious statement. Tingle Creek winners have won 2 Champion Chases (Sprinter Sacre 2013, Altior 2019).
2025 Tingle Creek Result (6th December):
- Il Etait Temps (8/11F) – Mullins/Townend – WON by 9L, "easily"
- Jonbon (3/1) – Henderson/Boinville – 9L 2nd, "outpaced by winner"
- L'Eau du Sud (7/2) – Skelton – 9L 3rd
The 2nd Favourite Angle: If Il Etait Temps goes off 2nd favourite, that's the 45% strike rate, +21 P/L sweet spot!
Positives:
- ✅ WON Tingle Creek 2025 by 9L (Tingle Creek → Champion Chase: 2 wins)
- ✅ Beat Jonbon easily – the former market leader
- ✅ 2nd favourite = 45% SR, +21 P/L 🔥
- ✅ Mullins/Townend combination
- ✅ 7yo (within age range)
- ✅ OR 169 (ideal range)
- ✅ Tingle Creek winners' NEXT race: Clarence House (12 wins, +84.12 P/L!) or Champion Chase direct
Next step: Watch the Clarence House Chase (January 2026). Tingle Creek winners who then win Clarence House have a superb Champion Chase record.
Tingle Creek → Clarence House → Champion Chase pathway:
- Altior: Tingle Creek 2018 → Clarence House 2019 → Champion Chase 2019 ✅
- Sprinter Sacre: Tingle Creek 2012 → Clarence House 2013 → Champion Chase 2013 ✅
Analysis: Jonbon (25/1)
⚠️ MAJOR DRIFT: Jonbon has drifted from Evens favourite to 25/1! He's now 10yo in 2026. The 10yo age bracket has 20% SR (+8 P/L) historically, but he's clearly not fancied after losing to Marine Nationale.
Analysis: Quilixios (20/1)
The "What If" Horse: Quilixios was LEADING at the last fence in 2025 Champion Chase before falling. He's 9yo (sweet spot) and proven at Cheltenham. At 20/1, he could be enormous value IF he stays upright.
Analysis: Solness (16/1)
❌ DUBLIN CHASE WINNER TRAP: Solness won the 2025 Dublin Chase. Dublin Chase WINNERS are 0/6 at the Champion Chase. This is a statistically bad angle despite his 4th place run.
Upcoming Trials to Watch (January-February 2026)
📅 Key Dates
- Clarence House Chase (Ascot, 17th Jan 2026) – THE key trial. 10 Champion Chase winners came via this route (+30.42 P/L)
- Game Spirit Chase (Newbury, Feb 2026) – 4 winners but -3.12 P/L
- Dublin Chase (Leopardstown DRF, 1st Feb 2026) – PLACED horses are the angle, not winners
Il Etait Temps' likely path: Tingle Creek winners typically go to Clarence House next (12 wins, +84.12 P/L at the Clarence House!). If Il Etait Temps wins the Clarence House, he becomes the standout Champion Chase contender.
Champion Chase 2026 Betting Strategy Summary
✅ BACK
- 2nd favourite (45%, +21)
- 9/2 - 6/1 bracket (57%, +17.50)
- 9-10 year olds (+8 at 10yo)
- Clarence House winners (+30.42)
- Dublin Chase PLACED (not winners)
- Henderson/Boinville (50%/60%)
- 3rd or 5th LTO (20%/40%)
❌ AVOID
- Odds-on favourites (25%)
- 5th favourite or bigger (0/44)
- 14/1+ outsiders (0/45)
- 11+ year olds (0 winners)
- Dublin Chase WINNERS (0/6)
- Game Spirit alone (-3.12)
2025/26 Season Form: The Key Races So Far
Leopardstown December G1 (27th December 2025) 🔥
Result:
- Solness (8/1) – J P O'Brien – led, all out, won by ½L
- Marine Nationale (2/1) – B Connell – "stayed on to press leader last, strongly pressed, just held"
- Majborough (6/4F) – W Mullins – beaten favourite, 2.75L 3rd
- Found A Fifty (9/2) – Elliott – 18L 4th
- Only By Night (12/1) – Cromwell – 6L 5th
- Captain Guinness (40/1) – de Bromhead – 18L 6th
✅ MARINE NATIONALE KEY TAKEAWAY: Lost by just ½L to Solness, "strongly pressed leader and every chance closing stages, just held." He's clearly in top form heading into 2026. Made a mistake at 2nd but recovered well.
Tingle Creek (6th December 2025)
Result:
- Il Etait Temps (8/11F) – Mullins/Townend – WON by 9L "easily"
- Jonbon (3/1) – Henderson/Boinville – 9L 2nd, "outpaced by winner"
- L'Eau du Sud (7/2) – Skelton – 9L 3rd
Key insight: Il Etait Temps DESTROYED Jonbon by 9 lengths. This is why Jonbon has drifted from Evens to 25/1 and why Il Etait Temps is now 2nd favourite.
Desert Orchid Chase (27th December 2025)
Result:
- Thistle Ask (15/8) – Skelton/H Skelton – WON by 10L "impressive"
- Saint Segal (9/2) – Jane Williams – 10L 2nd
- Boothill (18/1) – 14L 3rd
Path to Champion Chase: Desert Orchid → Champion Chase: 3 wins historically. But Thistle Ask is 20/1 – needs to prove himself at Grade 1 level first. Watch the Clarence House or Game Spirit.
Dublin Chase (2nd February 2025 - Last Season)
Result:
- Solness (6/1) – J P O'Brien – led throughout, won by 2L
- Marine Nationale (9/2) – B Connell – tracked leaders, 2nd
- Gaelic Warrior (6/4F) – W Mullins – beaten favourite, 12L 3rd
- Quilixios (10/1) – de Bromhead – 10L 4th
Then at Punchestown Champion Chase (April 2025):
- Marine Nationale (2/1) – WON by 7L, "stretched clear late on"
- Captain Guinness (28/1) – 7L 2nd
- Solness (11/1) – 4.25L 3rd
- Fact To File (11/10F) – 27L 4th, beaten favourite
⚠️ KEY PATTERN: Marine Nationale finished 2nd in the Dublin Chase then won Cheltenham Champion Chase, then won Punchestown. He's now 2nd again at Leopardstown December G1. The "runner-up to Solness" path has worked before!
Marine Nationale: Full Profile
| Stat | Value |
|---|---|
| Age (March 2026) | 9yo |
| Career Record | 13 runs, 8 wins, 12 places (62% win, 92% place) |
| Chase Record | 8 runs, 3 wins, 7 places (38% win, 88% place) |
| OR | 170 |
| Cheltenham Form | Supreme Novices 1st (2023), Champion Chase 1st (2025) |
| Key Stat | Won Champion Chase from 2nd in Dublin Chase – could repeat! |
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Data source: HorseRaceBase Big Race Trends | Last updated: January 2026
Related: Dublin Chase Analysis | Arkle Chase Trends | Cheltenham Festival 2026 Guide