The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase is the oldest race at the Cheltenham Festival, offering a thrilling test of speed and jumping ability over two miles. Since moving from the New Course to the Old Course in 2021, pace and positioning have become even more crucial. Below, we analyse the key trends, past winners, and best bets for this year’s renewal.
📊 Key Trends & Winning Profile
✅ Age Matters: 📅 12 of the last 15 winners were aged 7, 8, or 9.
✅ Ratings Range: 📈 Last 14 winners were rated between 136 and 152.
✅ Chase Experience: 🔄 Only three winners since 2000 had more than 12 chase starts.
✅ Seasonal Prep: 🏇 10 of the last 12 winners had no more than four chase runs that season.
✅ Festival Experience: ⛰️ 16 of the last 20 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival.
✅ Freshness Counts: 🚀 The last 13 winners had not run in the previous 30 days.
✅ Handicap Trends: 📊 Only two winners since 2004 had won a handicap chase that season.
✅ Conditional Jockeys Struggle: ❌ Only one conditional jockey has won this race since 2000.
✅ No Repeat Winners: 🔄 No horse has won this twice since 1959.
✅ No Need for Headgear: 🚫 Only four of the last 26 winners wore any type of headgear.
🏇 Recent Winners & Trends Analysis
📅 2025: TBD
📅 2024: Unexpected Party (9yo, BHA 138, 12/1, Dan Skelton) – Won after 9th in Cheltenham 2m4f Handicap
📅 2023: Maskada (7yo, BHA 142, 22/1, Henry de Bromhead) – Won after 11th in Irish Grade A Handicap Chase
📅 2022: Global Citizen (10yo, BHA 136, 28/1, Ben Pauling) – Won after 3rd in Sandown Listed Hurdle
📅 2021: Sky Pirate (8yo, BHA 152, 14/1, Jonjo O’Neill) – Won after 2nd in Warwick G2 Novice Chase
📅 2020: Chosen Mate (7yo, BHA 147, 7/2F, Gordon Elliott) – Won after 1st in Gowran Beginners’ Chase
🔍 Key Trends:
✅ Novices & second-season chasers perform well – Unexpected Party and Chosen Mate won as novices.
✅ Favourites struggle – Only one favourite has won since 2013.
✅ Horses fresh off a break perform best – The last 13 winners had not run in at least 30 days.
🎯 Expert Verdict: Who to Bet On?
✅ Look for 7, 8, or 9-year-olds with Cheltenham form.
✅ Check for horses rated between 136-152 – this is the key ratings band.
✅ Avoid last year’s winner – No horse has won twice since 1959.
✅ Fancied Irish runners have a strong record – Irish-trained runners have won five of the last 12.
✅ Dan Skelton’s runners are always well-plotted – Unexpected Party won last year at 12/1.
📈 Best Bets for Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase 2025 – Top Selections
| 🏇 Horse | 📉 Odds | 🎯 Trainer | 🔥 Age | 📊 OR | ⭐ RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libberty Hunter | 8/1 | Evan Williams | 9 | 151 | 160 |
| The King Of Prs | 10/1 | Gavin Cromwell | 7 | – | 137 |
| Firefox | 10/1 | Gordon Elliott | 7 | – | 149 |
| Jazzy Matty | 10/1 | Cian Collins | 6 | – | 126 |
🏆 Libberty Hunter ticks all the key trends and is well-fancied in the market.
🔥 The King Of Prs has improved steadily this season and represents Irish value.
💪 Firefox is well-handicapped and trained by Gordon Elliott, who won this in 2020.
⚡ Jazzy Matty is a dark horse – at six years old, he could spring a surprise.
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