The Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (formerly the RSA Chase) is the premier staying novice chase at the Cheltenham Festival, run over 3 miles and about half a furlong. This Grade 1 contest has produced future Gold Cup stars, including Denman, Bobs Worth, Might Bite, Monkfish, and Fact To File. The 2025 renewal promises to be another high-quality contest, with a competitive field lining up. Below, we analyse the key trends, previous winners, and the strongest betting selections for this year’s race.
📊 Key Trends & Winning Profile
✅ Age: 14 of the last 17 winners were aged 7 or 8.
✅ Experience: 14 of the last 15 winners had between 6 and 13 total runs over hurdles and fences.
✅ Chase Form: 17 of the last 18 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in at least a Grade 2 Chase.
✅ Official Ratings: The last 10 winners had a BHA chase rating of 150+ before the race.
✅ Market: 9 of the last 10 winners came from the top 3 in the betting.
✅ Headgear: No winner has worn headgear in the last 23 renewals.
✅ Kempton Kauto Star Chase (Feltham) Winners: All 22 winners of the Kauto Star Chase to come here have been beaten.
✅ Hurdle Rating: 9 of the last 13 winners were rated at least 143 over hurdles.
✅ Festival Experience: 14 of the last 18 winners had previously run at the Cheltenham Festival.
✅ Trainer Stats:
- Willie Mullins (🏆 4 wins in the last 8 years) has a strong record.
- Paul Nicholls (🏆 Topofthegame, 2019) and Nicky Henderson (🏆 Champ, 2020) also have solid records.
- Gordon Elliott is 0 from 18 in this race.
🏆 Recent Winners & Trends Analysis
| Year | Form | Winner | Age | OR | SP | Trainer | Jockey | Last Race |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 211 | Fact To File | 7 | 159 | 8/13F | W Mullins (IRE) | Mark Walsh | 1st 2m 5f G1 DRF Leopardstown (38) |
| 2023 | 011 | The Real Whacker | 7 | 153 | 8/1 | P Neville | S Twiston-Davies | 1st G2 Dipper Chase (73) |
| 2022 | 1111 | L’Homme Presse | 7 | 159 | 9/4F | V Williams | C Deutsch | 1st G1 Scilly Isles (39) |
| 2021 | 111 | Monkfish | 7 | 164 | 1/4F | W Mullins (IRE) | P Townend | 1st G1 Flogas Chase (38) |
| 2020 | 11F | Champ | 8 | 153 | 4/1 | N Henderson | B Geraghty | Fell in Dipper Chase (70) |
| 2019 | 22 | Topofthegame | 7 | 155 | 4/1 | P Nicholls | H Cobden | 2nd G1 Kauto Star (77) |
🔍 Key Takeaways:
✅ Age: 7-year-olds have won 15 of the last 18 renewals.
✅ Grade 1/2 Chase Form: 17 of the last 18 winners had been 1st or 2nd in a Grade 2+ chase.
✅ Market: 9 of the last 10 winners came from the top 3 in the betting.
✅ Trainer: Willie Mullins has trained 4 of the last 8 winners.
✅ Festival Experience: Strong form at previous Festivals is a major advantage.
🎯 Expert Verdict: Who to Bet On?
✅ Back 7- or 8-year-olds from the top 3 in the market with at least 3 chase starts.
✅ Favour horses who have already placed in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 Chase.
✅ Avoid any runner who fell last time out or won the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton.
✅ Ignore Gordon Elliott’s runners unless the horse is particularly well-fancied.
✅ Strong previous Festival form is a big advantage.
📈 Best Bets for Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase 2025 – Top Selections
| 🏇 Horse | 📉 Odds | 🎯 Trainer | 🔥 Age | 📊 OR | ⭐ RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ballyburn | 6/5 | W P Mullins | 7 | 160 | 167 |
| Dancing City | 9/2 | W P Mullins | 8 | 152 | 159 |
| Better Days Ahead | 13/2 | Gordon Elliott | 7 | 152 | 159 |
| Stellar Story | 12/1 | Gordon Elliott | 8 | 151 | 159 |
| Lecky Watson | 16/1 | W P Mullins | 7 | 152 | 161 |
✅ Ballyburn (6/5)
- ✅ Trained by Willie Mullins — who has dominated this race in recent years.
- ✅ BHA rating of 160 — fits the historical winner’s profile.
- ✅ Won last time out — strong Grade 1 form.
- ✅ Paul Townend rides — the top jockey for Willie Mullins.
💪 Verdict: The ideal profile and the strongest form — a deserving favourite.
✅ Dancing City (9/2)
- ✅ 8 years old — fits the perfect age profile.
- ✅ Won a Grade 1 chase.
- ✅ Danny Mullins rides — proven partnership.
💪 Verdict: Strong profile, but slight concern over age compared to the dominance of 7-year-olds.
✅ Better Days Ahead (13/2)
- ✅ Strong recent form over 3 miles.
- ✅ Rated 152 — competitive on official ratings.
- ❌ Gordon Elliott’s record in this race is poor.
💪 Verdict: Classy horse but Elliott’s poor record in the race tempers enthusiasm.
✅ Stellar Story (12/1)
- ✅ Proven over the distance.
- ✅ Gordon Elliott-trained — could be Elliott’s best chance.
- ✅ Strong form in Irish Grade 1 chases.
💪 Verdict: Value each-way play.
✅ Lecky Watson (16/1)
- ✅ Willie Mullins-trained — ideal connections.
- ✅ High RPR (161) — above the winning average.
- ✅ Strong form in smaller field chases.
💪 Verdict: A dark horse capable of hitting the frame.
🚫 Runners to Avoid
❌ Gorgeous Tom – BHA rating too low and lacks Grade 1 form.
❌ Quai De Bourbon – Inexperienced and unproven at this level.
💰 Each-Way Value
➡️ Dancing City (9/2) – Proven Grade 1 form at a value price.
➡️ Stellar Story (12/1) – Gordon Elliott’s best chance in the race.
➡️ Lecky Watson (16/1) – Ideal profile to hit the frame.
🔥Best Trend Fit: Ballyburn
✅ 7 years old.
✅ Grade 1 winning form.
✅ Trained by Willie Mullins.
✅ Top jockey in Paul Townend.
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