Match preview
England enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 58% chance. Norway likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why England are favourites (58%)
- England carry the higher Elo rating (235 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Norway won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
- England won 4 of their last five (4W 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 24% / 18% / 58% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
England are expected to control possession and territory, while Norway will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early England goal would force Norway to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Norway 0.8 · England 1.8
Quick stats
Norway — last 5
- Lv England1–2
- W@ Brazil2–1
- W@ Ivory Coast2–1
- Lv France1–4
- Wv Senegal3–2
England — last 5
- W@ France6–4
- Lv Argentina1–2
- W@ Norway2–1
- W@ Mexico3–2
- Wv Congo DR2–1
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1O. Nyland G
- 26J. Ryerson D
- 3K. Ajer D
- 17T. Heggem D
- 5D. Wolfe D
- 10M. Odegaard M
- 8S. Berge M
- 6P. Berg M
- 7A. Sorloth F
- 9E. Haaland F
- 21A. Schjelderup F
- 1J. Pickford G
- 2E. Konsa D
- 5J. Stones D
- 6M. Guehi D
- 3N. O'Reilly D
- 4D. Rice M
- 8E. Anderson M
- 20N. Madueke M
- 10J. Bellingham M
- 18A. Gordon M
- 9H. Kane F
Key matchups
Norway's focal point in attack against the heart of England's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
England's main outlet — how Norway's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.