Match preview
France are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 79%. Only a poor recent run (four-from-five) gives Iraq a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why France are favourites (79%)
- France carry the higher Elo rating (+552 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- France unbeaten and winning in their last five (5W)
- Iraq winless in their last five (1D 4L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 79% / 15% / 6% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
France are expected to control possession and territory, while Iraq will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early France goal would force Iraq to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: France 2.1 · Iraq 0.5
Quick stats
France — last 5
- Wv Sweden3–0
- W@ Norway4–1
- Wv Iraq3–0
- Wv Senegal3–1
- Wv Northern Ireland3–1
Iraq — last 5
- L@ Senegal0–5
- L@ France0–3
- Lv Norway1–4
- Lv Venezuela0–2
- D@ Spain1–1
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 16M. Maignan G
- 5J. Kounde D
- 4D. Upamecano D
- 17W. Saliba D
- 3L. Digne D
- 6M. Kone M
- 14A. Rabiot M
- 7O. Dembele M
- 11M. Olise M
- 12B. Barcola M
- 10K. Mbappe F
- 22A. Basil G
- 3H. Ali D
- 4Z. Tahseen D
- 5A. Hashem D
- 23M. Doski D
- 16A. Al Ammari M
- 11A. Qasem M
- 24Z. Ismaeel M
- 14Z. Iqbal M
- 8I. Bayesh M
- 18A. Hussein F
Key matchups
France's focal point in attack against the heart of Iraq's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Iraq's main outlet — how France's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.