Match preview
France are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 70%. Only a poor recent run (four-from-five) gives Iraq a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why France are favourites (70%)
- France carry the higher Elo rating (+450 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- France won 4 of their last five (4W 1L)
- Iraq mixed recent form (2W 1D 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 70% / 15% / 15% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
France are expected to control possession and territory, while Iraq will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early France goal would force Iraq to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: France 2.1 · Iraq 0.5
Quick stats
France — last 5
- Wv Northern Ireland3–1
- Lv Ivory Coast1–2
- W@ Colombia3–1
- W@ Brazil2–1
- W@ Azerbaijan3–1
Iraq — last 5
- Lv Venezuela0–2
- D@ Spain1–1
- Wv Andorra1–0
- Wv Bolivia2–1
- L@ Jordan0–1
Head to head
No recent meetings on record between these sides.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.