Match preview
Japan edge it on ratings AND form has been the better of the two going in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Japan are favourites (52%)
- Japan carry the higher Elo rating (+50 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Japan unbeaten and winning in their last five (5W)
- Sweden mixed recent form (2W 2D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 52% / 20% / 28% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Japan should shade possession but the gap is small enough that midfield control will decide territory. With little between the sides on ratings, a set piece or an individual moment is the most likely difference — expect a competitive game where the first goal heavily shapes what follows.
Expected goals: Japan 1.7 · Sweden 0.9
Quick stats
Japan — last 5
- Wv Iceland1–0
- W@ England1–0
- W@ Scotland1–0
- Wv Bolivia3–0
- Wv Ghana2–0
Sweden — last 5
- Dv Greece2–2
- L@ Norway1–3
- Wv Poland3–2
- W@ Ukraine3–1
- Dv Slovenia1–1
Head to head
No recent meetings on record between these sides.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.