Match preview
Japan are favourites on ratings but Sweden have been the in-form side. Closer than the badges suggest.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Japan are favourites (46%)
- Japan carry the higher Elo rating (+50 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Japan mixed recent form (2W 2D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 46% / 22% / 32% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Japan should shade possession but the gap is small enough that midfield control will decide territory. With little between the sides on ratings, a set piece or an individual moment is the most likely difference — expect a competitive game where the first goal heavily shapes what follows.
Expected goals: Japan 1.5 · Sweden 1.1
Quick stats
Japan — last 5
- L@ Brazil1–2
- Dv Sweden1–1
- W@ Tunisia4–0
- D@ Netherlands2–2
- Wv Iceland1–0
Sweden — last 5
No recent data yet.
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1Z. Suzuki G
- 20A. Seko D
- 4K. Itakura D
- 21H. Ito D
- 2Y. Sugawara M
- 7A. Tanaka M
- 15D. Kamada M
- 13K. Nakamura M
- 10R. Doan F
- 11D. Maeda F
- 18A. Ueda F
- 1J. Widell Zetterstrom G
- 2G. Lagerbielke D
- 4I. Hien D
- 5G. Gudmundsson D
- 21A. Bernhardsson M
- 3V. Lindelof M
- 18Y. Ayari M
- 24E. Stroud M
- 11A. Elanga F
- 17V. Gyökeres F
- 9A. Isak F
Key matchups
Japan's focal point in attack against the heart of Sweden's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Sweden's main outlet — how Japan's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.