Match preview
Colombia are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 58%. Only a poor recent run (mixed) gives Congo DR a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Colombia are favourites (58%)
- Colombia carry the higher Elo rating (+229 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Colombia mixed recent form (2W 2D 1L)
- Congo DR mixed recent form (2W 1D 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 58% / 18% / 24% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Colombia are expected to control possession and territory, while Congo DR will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Colombia goal would force Congo DR to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Colombia 1.8 · Congo DR 0.8
Quick stats
Colombia — last 5
- Wv Peru2–0
- Lv Paraguay0–1
- D@ Mexico1–1
- D@ Switzerland0–0
- Wv Ghana1–0
Congo DR — last 5
- D@ Uganda1–1
- Lv Uganda0–2
- W@ Zimbabwe2–1
- Wv Equatorial Guinea2–0
- L@ England1–2
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 12C. Vargas G
- 2D. Munoz D
- 23D. Sanchez D
- 3J. Lucumi D
- 17J. Mojica D
- 14G. Puerta M
- 16J. Lerma M
- 11J. Arias M
- 10J. Rodriguez F
- 25L. Suarez F
- 7L. Diaz F
- 1L. Mpasi-Nzau G
- 2A. Wan-Bissaka D
- 22C. Mbemba D
- 4A. Tuanzebe D
- 3S. Kapuadi D
- 26A. Masuaku D
- 6N. Mukau M
- 8S. Moutoussamy M
- 25E. Kayembe M
- 17C. Bakambu F
- 20Y. Wissa F
Key matchups
Colombia's focal point in attack against the heart of Congo DR's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Congo DR's main outlet — how Colombia's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.