Match preview
Sweden are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 60%. Only a poor recent run (three-from-five) gives Tunisia a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Sweden are favourites (60%)
- Sweden carry the higher Elo rating (+155 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Sweden won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Tunisia winless in their last five (2D 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 60% / 17% / 23% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Sweden are expected to control possession and territory, while Tunisia will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early Sweden goal would force Tunisia to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Sweden 1.9 · Tunisia 0.7
Quick stats
Sweden — last 5
- W@ Romania1–0
- D@ Bosnia & Herzegovina1–1
- Wv Poland3–1
- Wv Romania2–1
- L@ France0–3
Tunisia — last 5
- Dv Mali?–?
- Dv Botswana2–2
- Dv Uganda1–1
- Lv Netherlands1–3
- Lv Japan0–4
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 23K. Nordfeldt G
- 2G. Lagerbielke D
- 4I. Hien D
- 3V. Lindelof D
- 16J. Karlstrom M
- 21A. Bernhardsson M
- 10B. Nygren M
- 18Y. Ayari M
- 5G. Gudmundsson M
- 17V. Gyökeres F
- 9A. Isak F
- 1A. Chamakh G
- 20Y. Valery D
- 4O. Rekik D
- 3M. Talbi D
- 21M. Ben Hamida D
- 2A. Abdi D
- 13R. Khedira M
- 17E. Skhiri M
- 10H. Mejbri M
- 8E. Saad F
- 25A. Slimane F
Key matchups
Sweden's focal point in attack against the heart of Tunisia's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Tunisia's main outlet — how Sweden's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.