Match preview
Sweden edge it on ratings AND form has been the better of the two over the last five.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Sweden are favourites (50%)
- Sweden carry the higher Elo rating (+80 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Sweden mixed recent form (2W 2D 1L)
- Tunisia mixed recent form (1W 2D 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 50% / 20% / 30% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Sweden should shade possession but the gap is small enough that midfield control will decide territory. With little between the sides on ratings, a set piece or an individual moment is the most likely difference — expect a competitive game where the first goal heavily shapes what follows.
Expected goals: Sweden 1.6 · Tunisia 1
Quick stats
Sweden — last 5
- Dv Greece2–2
- L@ Norway1–3
- Wv Poland3–2
- W@ Ukraine3–1
- Dv Slovenia1–1
Tunisia — last 5
- L@ Belgium0–5
- L@ Austria0–1
- D@ Canada0–0
- W@ Haiti1–0
- D@ Mali1–1
Head to head
No recent meetings on record between these sides.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.