Match preview
Spain enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 69% chance. Uruguay likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Spain are favourites (69%)
- Spain carry the higher Elo rating (311 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Uruguay mixed recent form (2W 1D 2L)
- Spain unbeaten and winning in their last five (5W)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 16% / 15% / 69% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Spain are expected to control possession and territory, while Uruguay will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Spain goal would force Uruguay to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Uruguay 0.5 · Spain 2.1
Quick stats
Uruguay — last 5
- W@ India6–1
- W@ South Korea4–1
- L@ Japan1–3
- Lv Spain0–1
- Dv Cape Verde Islands2–2
Spain — last 5
- W@ Croatia2–1
- Wv Czechia3–1
- Wv Croatia4–1
- W@ England3–2
- Wv Argentina1–0
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 23F. Muslera G
- 13G. Varela D
- 3S. Caceres D
- 16M. Olivera D
- 25J. Sanabria D
- 5M. Ugarte M
- 14A. Canobbio M
- 6R. Bentancur M
- 8F. Valverde M
- 20M. Araujo M
- 9D. Nunez F
- 23U. Simon G
- 5M. Llorente D
- 22P. Cubarsi D
- 14A. Laporte D
- 24M. Cucurella D
- 20Pedri M
- 16Rodri M
- 19Lamine Yamal M
- 6M. Merino M
- 15A. Baena M
- 21M. Oyarzabal F
Key matchups
Uruguay's focal point in attack against the heart of Spain's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Spain's main outlet — how Uruguay's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.