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WORLD CUP 2026 · Thursday, 25 June 2026 at 02:00 BST
South Africa
1 – 0
South Korea

Match preview

South Korea carry the rating edge but it's not large. Either side could nick it.

31%
South Africa
21%
Draw
48%
South Korea
Model fair odds
South Africa
3.23
Draw
4.76
South Korea
2.08

Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.

South Africa
31%
Draw
21%
South Korea
48%
Elo rating: 1699 vs 1793 (-94)
Recent form: LWDLD vs LLWWW
Host advantage: Neutral venue
Model verdict: 31% / 21% / 48%
Most likely scores
South Korea 1–0 (12%)
Draw 1–1 (12%)
South Korea 2–0 (9%)
South Korea 2–1 (9%)
Why South Korea are favourites (48%)
  • South Korea carry the higher Elo rating (94 points)
  • Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
  • South Africa mixed recent form (1W 2D 2L)
  • South Korea won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
  • Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)

These factors combine to produce the 31% / 21% / 48% verdict above.

Expected match pattern

South Korea should shade possession but the gap is small enough that midfield control will decide territory. With little between the sides on ratings, a set piece or an individual moment is the most likely difference — expect a competitive game where the first goal heavily shapes what follows.

Expected goals: South Africa 1 · South Korea 1.6

Quick stats

MetricSouth AfricaSouth Korea
Elo rating16991793
Last 5 record1W 2D 2L3W 2L
Goals last 538
Goals conceded last 553
Clean sheets last 512

South Africa — last 5

  • Lv Canada01
  • Wv South Korea10
  • D@ Czechia11
  • L@ Mexico02
  • D@ Jamaica11

South Korea — last 5

  • L@ South Africa01
  • L@ Mexico01
  • Wv Czechia21
  • Wv El Salvador10
  • Wv Trinidad and Tobago50

Head to head

25 Jun 2026
South Africa
10
South Korea

Confirmed lineups

South Africa · 4-2-3-1
  1. 1R. Williams G
  2. 20K. Mudau D
  3. 21I. Okon D
  4. 14M. Mbokazi D
  5. 6A. Modiba D
  6. 5T. Mbatha M
  7. 13Y. Sithole M
  8. 12T. Maseko M
  9. 10R. Mofokeng M
  10. 7O. Appollis M
  11. 17E. Makgopa F
South Korea · 3-4-2-1
  1. 1Kim Seung-Gyu G
  2. 2Lee Han-Beom D
  3. 4Kim Min-Jae D
  4. 3Lee Gi-Hyuk D
  5. 22Seol Young-Woo M
  6. 8Paik Seung-Ho M
  7. 6Hwang In-Beom M
  8. 13Lee Tae-Seok M
  9. 19Lee Kang-In F
  10. 11Hwang Hee-Chan F
  11. 18Oh Hyeon-Gyu F

Key matchups

E. Makgopa vs Kim Min-Jae

South Africa's focal point in attack against the heart of South Korea's defence.

T. Maseko vs Paik Seung-Ho

The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.

Lee Kang-In vs I. Okon

South Korea's main outlet — how South Africa's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.

Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.