Match preview
Morocco are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 70%. Only a poor recent run (three-from-five) gives Haiti a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Morocco are favourites (70%)
- Morocco carry the higher Elo rating (+293 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Morocco unbeaten in their last five (2W 3D)
- Haiti mixed recent form (1W 4L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 70% / 15% / 15% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Morocco are expected to control possession and territory, while Haiti will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early Morocco goal would force Haiti to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Morocco 2.1 · Haiti 0.5
Quick stats
Morocco — last 5
- D@ Netherlands1–1
- Wv Haiti4–2
- W@ Scotland1–0
- D@ Brazil1–1
- Dv Norway1–1
Haiti — last 5
- L@ Morocco2–4
- L@ Brazil0–3
- Lv Scotland0–1
- Lv Peru1–2
- Wv New Zealand4–0
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1Bono G
- 2A. Hakimi D
- 25R. Halhal D
- 18C. Riad D
- 26A. Salah-Eddine D
- 24N. El Aynaoui M
- 4S. Amrabat M
- 10B. Diaz M
- 11I. Saibari M
- 23B. El Khannouss M
- 20A. El Kaabi F
- 1J. Placide G
- 22J. Duverne D
- 4R. Ade D
- 5H. Delcroix D
- 8M. Experience D
- 21J. Casimir M
- 17D. Jean Jacques M
- 10J. Bellegarde M
- 15R. Providence M
- 18W. Isidor F
- 16L. Joseph F
Key matchups
Morocco's focal point in attack against the heart of Haiti's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Haiti's main outlet — how Morocco's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.