Match preview
Morocco are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 60%. Only a poor recent run (mixed) gives Haiti a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Morocco are favourites (60%)
- Morocco carry the higher Elo rating (+313 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Morocco mixed recent form (2W 1D 1L)
- Haiti won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 60% / 17% / 23% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Morocco are expected to control possession and territory, while Haiti will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Morocco goal would force Haiti to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Morocco 1.9 · Haiti 0.7
Quick stats
Morocco — last 5
- Dv Ghana?–?
- Dv Mali1–1
- W@ Lesotho2–0
- Wv Gabon2–0
- L@ France0–2
Haiti — last 5
- L@ Costa Rica0–2
- W@ Dominican Republic4–1
- Wv Costa Rica2–0
- Wv Trinidad and Tobago3–2
- L@ Morocco2–4
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1Bono G
- 2A. Hakimi D
- 25R. Halhal D
- 18C. Riad D
- 26A. Salah-Eddine D
- 24N. El Aynaoui M
- 4S. Amrabat M
- 10B. Diaz M
- 11I. Saibari M
- 23B. El Khannouss M
- 20A. El Kaabi F
- 1J. Placide G
- 22J. Duverne D
- 4R. Ade D
- 5H. Delcroix D
- 8M. Experience D
- 21J. Casimir M
- 17D. Jean Jacques M
- 10J. Bellegarde M
- 15R. Providence M
- 18W. Isidor F
- 16L. Joseph F
Key matchups
Morocco's focal point in attack against the heart of Haiti's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Haiti's main outlet — how Morocco's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.