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WORLD CUP 2026 · Wednesday, 24 June 2026 at 23:00 BST
Morocco
4 – 2
Haiti

Match preview

Morocco are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 70%. Only a poor recent run (three-from-five) gives Haiti a way in.

70%
Morocco
15%
Draw
15%
Haiti
Model fair odds
Morocco
1.43
Draw
6.67
Haiti
6.67

Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.

Morocco
70%
Draw
15%
Haiti
15%
Elo rating: 1951 vs 1658 (+293)
Recent form: DWWDD vs LLLLW
Host advantage: Neutral venue
Model verdict: 70% / 15% / 15%
Most likely scores
Morocco 2–0 (16%)
Morocco 1–0 (15%)
Morocco 3–0 (11%)
Draw 1–1 (8%)
Why Morocco are favourites (70%)
  • Morocco carry the higher Elo rating (+293 points)
  • Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
  • Morocco unbeaten in their last five (2W 3D)
  • Haiti mixed recent form (1W 4L)
  • Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)

These factors combine to produce the 70% / 15% / 15% verdict above.

Expected match pattern

Morocco are expected to control possession and territory, while Haiti will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early Morocco goal would force Haiti to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.

Expected goals: Morocco 2.1 · Haiti 0.5

Quick stats

MetricMoroccoHaiti
Elo rating19511658
Last 5 record2W 3D1W 4L
Goals last 587
Goals conceded last 5510
Clean sheets last 511

Morocco — last 5

  • D@ Netherlands11
  • Wv Haiti42
  • W@ Scotland10
  • D@ Brazil11
  • Dv Norway11

Haiti — last 5

  • L@ Morocco24
  • L@ Brazil03
  • Lv Scotland01
  • Lv Peru12
  • Wv New Zealand40

Head to head

24 Jun 2026
Morocco
42
Haiti

Confirmed lineups

Morocco · 4-2-3-1
  1. 1Bono G
  2. 2A. Hakimi D
  3. 25R. Halhal D
  4. 18C. Riad D
  5. 26A. Salah-Eddine D
  6. 24N. El Aynaoui M
  7. 4S. Amrabat M
  8. 10B. Diaz M
  9. 11I. Saibari M
  10. 23B. El Khannouss M
  11. 20A. El Kaabi F
Haiti · 4-4-1-1
  1. 1J. Placide G
  2. 22J. Duverne D
  3. 4R. Ade D
  4. 5H. Delcroix D
  5. 8M. Experience D
  6. 21J. Casimir M
  7. 17D. Jean Jacques M
  8. 10J. Bellegarde M
  9. 15R. Providence M
  10. 18W. Isidor F
  11. 16L. Joseph F

Key matchups

A. El Kaabi vs R. Ade

Morocco's focal point in attack against the heart of Haiti's defence.

B. Diaz vs D. Jean Jacques

The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.

W. Isidor vs R. Halhal

Haiti's main outlet — how Morocco's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.

Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.