Match preview
Norway are favourites on ratings but Senegal have been the in-form side. Closer than the badges suggest.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Norway are favourites (38%)
- Norway carry the higher Elo rating (+99 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Norway mixed recent form (1W 4L)
- Senegal won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 38% / 24% / 38% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Norway should shade possession but the gap is small enough that midfield control will decide territory. With little between the sides on ratings, a set piece or an individual moment is the most likely difference — expect a competitive game where the first goal heavily shapes what follows.
Expected goals: Norway 1.3 · Senegal 1.3
Quick stats
Norway — last 5
- L@ Portugal1–2
- L@ Wales1–2
- Lv Portugal1–2
- Wv Denmark3–2
- Lv England1–2
Senegal — last 5
- W@ Comoros1–0
- W@ Ethiopia1–0
- D@ Mozambique1–1
- L@ Belgium2–3
- Wv Iraq5–0
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1O. Nyland G
- 26J. Ryerson D
- 3K. Ajer D
- 17T. Heggem D
- 5D. Wolfe D
- 10M. Odegaard M
- 8S. Berge M
- 14F. Aursnes M
- 7A. Sorloth F
- 9E. Haaland F
- 20A. Nusa F
- 16E. Mendy G
- 15K. Diatta D
- 3K. Koulibaly D
- 19M. Niakhate D
- 25M. Diouf D
- 5I. Gueye M
- 26P. Gueye M
- 18I. Sarr M
- 8L. Camara M
- 10S. Mane M
- 11N. Jackson F
Key matchups
Norway's focal point in attack against the heart of Senegal's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Senegal's main outlet — how Norway's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.