Match preview
Genuine coin flip on Elo (+0 points). Recent form fractionally favours Norway.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why the model can't split them
- Elo ratings nearly level (+0 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Norway mixed recent form (2W 2D 1L)
- Senegal mixed recent form (2W 1D 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 42% / 23% / 35% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
The model sees no meaningful ratings edge, so expect a cautious opening with both sides wary of conceding first. Fine margins decide games like this — the first goal is worth more than usual, because the side that scores it can manage the game state from there.
Expected goals: Norway 1.4 · Senegal 1.2
Quick stats
Norway — last 5
- D@ Morocco1–1
- Wv Sweden3–1
- Dv Switzerland0–0
- L@ Netherlands1–2
- W@ Italy4–1
Senegal — last 5
- D@ Saudi Arabia0–0
- L@ USA2–3
- Wv Gambia3–1
- Wv Peru2–0
- Lv Morocco0–3
Head to head
No recent meetings on record between these sides.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.