Match preview
Japan enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 61% chance. Tunisia likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Japan are favourites (61%)
- Japan carry the higher Elo rating (223 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Tunisia winless in their last five (2D 2L)
- Japan won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 22% / 17% / 61% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Japan are expected to control possession and territory, while Tunisia will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early Japan goal would force Tunisia to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Tunisia 0.7 · Japan 1.9
Quick stats
Tunisia — last 5
- Dv Mali?–?
- Dv Botswana2–2
- Dv Uganda1–1
- Lv Netherlands1–3
- Lv Japan0–4
Japan — last 5
- Wv New Zealand2–1
- Dv Ecuador0–0
- Wv Venezuela2–1
- Wv Uruguay3–1
- L@ Brazil1–2
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1Z. Suzuki G
- 22T. Tomiyasu D
- 4K. Itakura D
- 21H. Ito D
- 10R. Doan M
- 24K. Sano M
- 7A. Tanaka M
- 13K. Nakamura M
- 14J. Ito F
- 15D. Kamada F
- 18A. Ueda F
- 16A. Dahmen G
- 6D. Bronn D
- 3M. Talbi D
- 4O. Rekik D
- 20Y. Valery M
- 25A. Slimane M
- 17E. Skhiri M
- 2A. Abdi M
- 8E. Saad F
- 10H. Mejbri F
- 26S. Tounekti F
Key matchups
Tunisia's focal point in attack against the heart of Japan's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Japan's main outlet — how Tunisia's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.