Match preview
Japan enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 58% chance. Tunisia likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Japan are favourites (58%)
- Japan carry the higher Elo rating (130 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Tunisia mixed recent form (1W 2D 2L)
- Japan unbeaten and winning in their last five (5W)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 24% / 18% / 58% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Japan are expected to control possession and territory, while Tunisia will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Japan goal would force Tunisia to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Tunisia 0.7 · Japan 1.9
Quick stats
Tunisia — last 5
- L@ Belgium0–5
- L@ Austria0–1
- D@ Canada0–0
- W@ Haiti1–0
- D@ Mali1–1
Japan — last 5
- Wv Iceland1–0
- W@ England1–0
- W@ Scotland1–0
- Wv Bolivia3–0
- Wv Ghana2–0
Head to head
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.