Match preview
Morocco enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 58% chance. Scotland likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Morocco are favourites (58%)
- Morocco carry the higher Elo rating (213 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Scotland mixed recent form (1W 1D 3L)
- Morocco mixed recent form (2W 1D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 24% / 18% / 58% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Morocco are expected to control possession and territory, while Scotland will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early Morocco goal would force Scotland to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Scotland 0.8 · Morocco 1.8
Quick stats
Scotland — last 5
- Lv Slovenia1–2
- W@ FYR Macedonia2–0
- Lv Switzerland0–3
- D@ Slovenia0–0
- Lv Brazil0–3
Morocco — last 5
- Dv Ghana?–?
- Dv Mali1–1
- W@ Lesotho2–0
- Wv Gabon2–0
- L@ France0–2
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1Bono G
- 2A. Hakimi D
- 14I. Diop D
- 18C. Riad D
- 3N. Mazraoui D
- 6A. Bouaddi M
- 24N. El Aynaoui M
- 10B. Diaz M
- 8A. Ounahi M
- 23B. El Khannouss M
- 11I. Saibari F
- 1A. Gunn G
- 22N. Patterson D
- 5G. Hanley D
- 13J. Hendry D
- 3A. Robertson D
- 7J. McGinn M
- 11R. Christie M
- 19L. Ferguson M
- 6K. Tierney M
- 4S. McTominay F
- 10C. Adams F
Key matchups
Scotland's focal point in attack against the heart of Morocco's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Morocco's main outlet — how Scotland's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.