The Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (The Dawn Run) is one of the newer races at the Cheltenham Festival, having been established in 2016. Despite being a relatively new contest, clear patterns have emerged, especially around age, experience, and the dominance of certain trainers.
Initially dominated by Willie Mullins (who won the first five renewals), British trainers have taken control in recent years, winning the last three renewals. Stamina and race experience have become key factors, and second-season novices have performed particularly well.
📊 Key Trends & Winning Profile
✅ Age Matters: 📅 All 9 winners were aged 5 or 6.
✅ Experience Counts: 🔄 6 of the last 9 winners had run at least 4 times over hurdles.
✅ Irish vs British Trainers: 🇮🇪 6 of the 9 winners were Irish-trained, but the last three were British-trained.
✅ Second-Season Novices Do Well: 📈 4 of the last 8 winners were second-season novices.
✅ Stamina a Plus: 🏇 8 of the 9 winners had placed over 2m2f or further.
✅ Recent Form Crucial: 🚀 All 9 winners finished in the first three last time out.
✅ Avoid Beaten Favourites (BF): ❌ No beaten favourite last time out has won.
✅ Headgear a Negative: ⚠️ No winner has worn blinkers or cheekpieces.
✅ British-Bred Struggles: 🇬🇧 Just 2 winners from 32 British-bred runners.
✅ Favourite Struggles: 😬 The last six favourites were beaten, including five at odds under 3/1.
✅ P Nicholls’ Record Poor: ❌ 0-12 in this race with no placed finishers.
🏇 Recent Winners & Trends Analysis
| Year | Winner | Age | OR | SP | Trainer | Jockey | Last Race |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Golden Ace | 6 | 124 | 10/1 | J Scott | L Williams | 1st Taunton Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (37) |
| 2023 | You Wear It Well | 6 | 135 | 16/1 | J Snowden | G Sheehan | 1st G2 Sandown 2m4f Mares’ Novice (28) |
| 2022 | Love Envoi | 6 | 135 | 15/2 | H Fry | J Burke | 1st G2 Sandown 2m4f Mares’ Novice (28) |
| 2021 | Telmesomethinggirl | 6 | 136 | 5/1 | H de Bromhead | R Blackmore | 3rd DRF Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (39) |
| 2020 | Concertista | 6 | 141 | 9/2 | W Mullins | D Jacob | 3rd DRF Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (39) |
🔍 Key Takeaways:
✅ 6-year-olds have won the last 5 renewals.
✅ Stamina matters – 8 of the last 9 winners had 2m2f+ form.
✅ Graded/Listed race form is important – The last 5 winners had placed at Graded level.
✅ Second-season novices have done well – 4 of the last 8 winners were in their second season over hurdles.
✅ Beaten favourites last time out have a terrible record – Avoid them.
✅ Willie Mullins’ dominance has faded – He hasn’t won in the last 4 years.
🎯 Expert Verdict: Who to Bet On?
✅ Look for a 5 or 6-year-old with proven stamina over 2m2f or further.
✅ Focus on horses with Graded/Listed form or experience in competitive fields.
✅ Avoid beaten favourites and headgear-wearing horses.
✅ The market has misfired recently – Look for value selections rather than favourites.
📈 Best Bets for Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle 2025 – Top Selections
| 🏇 Horse | 📉 Odds | 🎯 Trainer | 🔥 Age | 📊 OR | ⭐ RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sixandahalf | 3/1 | Gavin Cromwell | 5 | – | 143 |
| Maughreen | 13/2 | W P Mullins | 6 | – | 130 |
| Karoline Banbou | 9/1 | W P Mullins | 5 | 132 | 137 |
| Galileo Dame | 13/2 | J P O’Brien | 4 | 137 | 145 |
| Jubilee Alpha | 12/1 | Paul Nicholls | 6 | 128 | 138 |
✅ Sixandahalf (3/1)
- ✅ Trained by Gavin Cromwell – Knows how to train a Festival winner.
- ✅ Top-rated horse in the race – RPR of 143.
- ✅ Won over 2m4f – Strong stamina profile.
💪 Verdict: Perfect trend fit – Major player.
✅ Maughreen (13/2)
- ✅ Trained by Willie Mullins – Won five of the first seven renewals.
- ✅ Proven class – Graded form.
- ✅ Big-field experience.
💪 Verdict: Classic Mullins plot horse – Expect improvement.
✅ Karoline Banbou (9/1)
- ✅ Trained by Willie Mullins – Multiple entries suggest confidence.
- ✅ Strong RPR – 137
- ✅ Has form over 2m4f – Ideal stamina.
💪 Verdict: Each-way value – Could surprise.
✅ Galileo Dame (13/2)
- ✅ Trained by Joseph O’Brien – Improving trainer at the Festival.
- ✅ High RPR of 145 – Highest in the field.
- ✅ Four-year-old – A negative, but has the class.
💪 Verdict: Big talent – Breaking trends?
✅ Jubilee Alpha (12/1)
- ✅ Trained by Paul Nicholls – Trying to break a poor record in the race.
- ✅ Decent RPR of 138 – Competitive on paper.
- ✅ Won over 2m4f – Stamina not an issue.
💪 Verdict: Dark horse – Worth an each-way shot.
🚫 Runners to Avoid
❌ Aurora Vega (10/1) – Aged 7 – No winner older than 6.
❌ Venusienne (25/1) – No notable form in Listed or Graded company.
❌ Mystical Goddess (80/1) – No standout form – outclassed.
❌ Magic McColgan (40/1) – Beaten in weak company – Unlikely to feature.
❌ Just A Rose (16/1) – Trained by Paul Nicholls – Poor Festival record.
💰 Each-Way Value
➡️ Karoline Banbou (9/1) – Willie Mullins’ second string – Proven over trip.
➡️ Galileo Dame (13/2) – High-class form – Represents value.
➡️ Jubilee Alpha (12/1) – Paul Nicholls horse at a big price – Solid form.
🔥 Best Trend Fit: Sixandahalf
✅ Unbeaten profile.
✅ Strong trainer/jockey combo.
✅ Ideal RPR for this race.
🏆 Top Selection: Sixandahalf – Ticks all the right boxes.
💼 Best Each-Way Bet: Karoline Banbou – Strong form and value.
🚀 Dark Horse: Galileo Dame – High rating but unproven age group.
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