The Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 2025 is the traditional curtain-raiser for the Cheltenham Festival, attracting the best young hurdlers from Britain and Ireland. This race has produced future Champion Hurdle winners like Constitution Hill and Altior. Below, we analyze the key trends, recent winners, and top bets for this year’s renewal.
📊 Key Trends & Winning Profile
✅ Age Matters: 📅 15 of the last 16 winners were aged 5 or 6. ❌ No 4yo winner since 1999 and no 7yo winner since Appreciate It in 2021.
✅ Form: 🏆 16 of the last 19 winners had won last time out. 11 of the last 13 winners had won at least a G2 novice hurdle.
✅ Winning Strike Rate: 🚀 21 of the last 22 winners had won at least 50% of all hurdle starts in Britain and Ireland.
✅ Unbeaten Novices Dominate: 🥇 8 of the last 11 winners were unbeaten over hurdles before Cheltenham.
✅ Ratings Benchmark: 📈 17 horses came into this with a BHA rating of 153+ in the last 11 years — 6 won and 5 placed.
✅ Trainer Trends: 🇮🇪 Irish-trained horses have won 8 of the last 12 renewals. W Mullins and N Henderson have dominated.
✅ Headgear Woes: ❌ No winner wearing headgear since Flown in 1992.
✅ Market Clues: 🔍 18 of the last 23 winners started (at least) joint favourite on their previous run.
✅ Jockey Impact: 👨🎓 Ruby Walsh and Nico de Boinville have had the most success in recent years.
🏇 Recent Winners & Trends Analysis
| Year | Form | Winner | Age | OR | SP | Trainer | Jockey | Last Race (Days) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 112 | Slade Steel | 6 | 147 | 7/2 | H de Bromhead (IRE) | R Blackmore | 2nd G1 DRF 2m (37) |
| 2023 | 1111 | Marine Nationale | 6 | 150 | 9/2 | B Connell (IRE) | M O’Sullivan | 1st G1 Fairyhouse (100) |
| 2022 | 11 | Constitution Hill | 5 | 148 | 9/4 JF | N Henderson | N de Boinville | 1st G1 Sandown Tolworth (66) |
| 2021 | 111 | Appreciate It | 7 | 153 | 8/11F | W Mullins (IRE) | P Townend | 1st G1 Leopardstown (37) |
| 2020 | F11 | Shishkin | 6 | 153 | 6/1 | N Henderson | N de Boinville | 1st Lstd Huntingdon (33) |
🔍 Expert Verdict: Who to Bet On?
✅ Focus on 5-6-year-olds with proven Grade 1 or 2 form and a winning strike rate of 50%+.
✅ Irish-trained runners are dominant — look to W P Mullins and G Elliott.
✅ Avoid horses wearing headgear and those with less than three career hurdle runs.
✅ Look for horses with a BHA rating of 147+ and coming from strong prep races like the Royal Bond or Chanelle Hurdle.
✅ Be cautious with favourites — only two outright favourites have won since 2004.
📈 Best Bets for Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 2025 – Top Selections
| 🏇 Horse | 📉 Odds | 🎯 Trainer | 🔥 Age | 📊 OR | ⭐ RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kopek Des Bordes | 10/11 | W P Mullins | 5 | 157 | 162 |
| Romeo Coolio | 7/1 | Gordon Elliott | 6 | 148 | 156 |
✅ Kopek Des Bordes (10/11)
- ✅ Rated 157 (well above winning average)
- ✅ 5 years old (ideal age)
- ✅ Trained by W P Mullins (dominant trainer)
- ✅ High-class form over 2m
💪 Verdict: The clear standout favourite and fits all major trends.
✅ Romeo Coolio (7/1)
- ✅ 6 years old (ideal age)
- ✅ Rated 148 (solid)
- ✅ Trained by Gordon Elliott (Irish dominance)
- ✅ Strong prep run in a Grade 1
💪 Verdict: Strong contender at decent value.
🔥 Best Trend Fit: Kopek Des Bordes
✅ Rated 157 (above key benchmark)
✅ Trained by W P Mullins
✅ Ideal age and profile
✅ Proven at Grade 1 level
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