Champion Day | Tuesday 10th March 2026 | 3:20pm | 3m1f Handicap Chase | Premier Handicap
Last updated: January 2026 | Data source: HorseRaceBase
The Ultima Handicap Chase (formerly the William Hill Trophy) is a fiercely competitive 24-runner handicap that opens the Festival's chase action. Run over 3m1f with 20 fences, this is a true test of stamina and jumping ability. Winners come from varied trial paths - making this one of the hardest Festival races to predict.
💰 Key Finding
Lucinda Russell: 3 wins from 6 runners (50%) including 2025 winner Myretown. Follow this trainer.
🏇 Get Expert Festival Tips
Our verified tipsters analyse trial form and find Festival value. Join free trials and watch results before subscribing.
Current Ante-Post Market (January 2026)
A wide-open market as expected for a 24-runner handicap. The defending champion Myretown heads the betting but carries 15lbs more than when winning in 2025.
| Horse | Trainer | Odds | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jagwar | - | 7/1 | Market leader |
| Myretown | Lucinda Russell | 8/1 | 2025 Winner - Russell 3/6 (50%) |
| Konfusion | - | 10/1 | - |
| Johnnywho | - | 12/1 | - |
| Deep Cave | - | 12/1 | - |
| Jeriko Du Reponet | - | 14/1 | - |
| The Changing Man | Joe Tizzard | 16/1 | 2nd 2025 Ultima, 3rd Coral Gold Cup |
| Three Card Brag | Gordon Elliott | 16/1 | 2nd Coral Gold Cup (Nov 2025) |
| Panic Attack | Daniel Skelton | 16/1 | Won Coral Gold Cup (Nov 2025) |
| Katate Dori | Sam Thomas | 20/1 | Won Kempton G3 Feb, 2nd Cheltenham NYD |
| Herakles Westwood | Warren Greatrex | 20/1 | Won Cheltenham NYD Hcp Chase (Jan 2026) |
| Twig | Ben Pauling | 33/1 | Won Becher Hcp Chase (Dec 2025) |
| Val Dancer | Melanie Rowley | 33/1 | 3rd Becher - Rowley has Ultima form |
⚠️ 2025 Winner Warning: Myretown won off OR 127 in 2025 - now rated 142 (+15lbs). This is significant in a handicap. Previous Ultima winners rarely repeat, though Corach Rambler did win back-to-back (2022-23).
Key Trial Races & Paths (Winners Only)
Unlike many Festival races, Ultima winners come from an enormous variety of trial paths. Seven winners came from "non-compiled" races - smaller handicaps not tracked as major trials.
| Previous Race | Winners | P/L | 2025/26 Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleeve Hurdle | 2 | +17 | Gowel Road (5/2 JF) |
| Doncaster Sky Bet Chase | 2 | +15 | Docpickedme (9/1) |
| Becher Handicap Chase | 1 | +50 | Twig (18/1) |
| Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy) | 1 | +6 | Panic Attack (16/1) |
| Leopardstown Feb Hcp Chase | 1 | +7 | Backtonormal (11/4) |
| Kempton G3 Late Feb | 1 | +5.5 | Katate Dori (11/2) |
| Classic Chase | 1 | +7.5 | TBC (Jan 2026) |
| Thyestes Handicap Chase | 1 | +7 | Nick Rockett (9/2 JF) |
| Cheltenham NYD Hcp Chase | 1 | +10 | Herakles Westwood (11/2) |
| Haydock GNT | 1 | +8 | TBC (Feb 2026) |
| Reynoldstown Novices Chase | 1 | +10 | TBC (Feb 2026) |
| Cheltenham G3 Jan Hcp | 1 | +10 | TBC |
| Non-compiled races | 7 | 0 | Smaller handicaps/novice chases |
Note: The spread of winning paths is enormous. Unlike graded races where 1-2 trials dominate, Ultima winners come from all over.
💡 Key Insight: The 2025 winner Myretown came from a Kelso Class 3 Novices Handicap Chase - a classic "non-compiled" route. He was under the radar at a low mark before striking at 13/2.
Profiler Sweet Spots (Last 15 Years)
| Factor | Sweet Spot | Wins | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | 9/2 - 8/1 | 5 | +10 |
| Market Position | 5th favourite | 3 | +25 |
| Market Position | 3rd favourite | 3 | +13.5 |
| Market Position | Favourite | 3 | +5.5 |
| Age | 8yo | 5 | -37 |
| Age | 11yo (VALUE!) | 1 | +19 |
| OR | 143 | 2 | +25 |
| OR | 127 (bottom weight) | 1 | +5.5 |
| Previous Finish | 4th LTO | 3 | -0.5 |
| Previous Finish | 1st LTO | 3 | -26.5 |
| Max Distance Won | 3m2f | 3 | +22 |
| Wins at Higher Dist | 1 win | 5 | +16.5 |
Trainer & Jockey Records
| Trainer | Wins | Runs | Win% | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucinda Russell | 3 | 6 | 50% | +19.5 |
| David Pipe | 2 | 9 | 22% | +13 |
| Sue Smith | 1 | 8 | 13% | +21 |
| Kim Bailey | 1 | 7 | 14% | 0 |
| Nick Williams | 1 | 3 | 33% | +3 |
| Gordon Elliott | 0 | 14 | 0% | -14 |
| Jockey | Wins | Runs | Win% | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Fox | 2 | 5 | 40% | +13 |
| Tom Scudamore | 2 | 7 | 29% | +15 |
| Ryan Mania | 1 | 2 | 50% | +27 |
| Brendan Powell | 1 | 4 | 25% | +4.5 |
| David Bass | 1 | 6 | 17% | +1 |
💡 Key Angle: Derek Fox has won 2 from 5 rides (40%) in this race - both for Lucinda Russell (Corach Rambler 2022-23, Myretown 2025). If Fox rides a Russell horse, that's the combination to follow.
2025/26 Key Trial Form
Coral Gold Cup (Newbury, 29 Nov 2025)
1st: Panic Attack (16/1) - Skelton - led after 4 out, stayed on strongly
2nd: Three Card Brag (25/1) - Elliott - battled on, rallied run-in
3rd: The Changing Man (8/1) - Tizzard - every chance, held run-in
4th: Gorgeous Tom (16/1) - de Bromhead - stayed on from rear
Note: Myretown (4/1F) FELL at 9th when going well.
Becher Handicap Chase (Aintree, 6 Dec 2025)
1st: Twig (18/1) - Pauling - held on gamely in tight finish
2nd: Mr Vango (9/2F) - Bradstock - narrowly denied
3rd: Val Dancer (12/1) - Rowley - stayed on from rear
Becher path = 1 winner, +50 P/L in Ultima. Twig and Val Dancer both interesting.
Cheltenham NYD Handicap Chase (1 Jan 2026)
1st: Herakles Westwood (11/2) - Greatrex - stayed on well
2nd: Katate Dori (7/1) - Sam Thomas - led 2 out, headed 110yds out
3rd: New Order (5/1) - Longsdon - led until 2 out
Cheltenham NYD path = 1 winner, +10 P/L in Ultima. Both Herakles Westwood and Katate Dori have course form.
Leopardstown Feb Handicap Chase (2 Feb 2025)
1st: Backtonormal (11/4F) - Cromwell - stayed on well
2nd: Sequestered (5/1) - Gilligan - led entering straight, held
3rd: Monbeg Park (9/1) - kept on
This trial produced 1 Ultima winner (+7 P/L). Watch for beaten horses dropping into Ultima.
2025 Ultima Result
Ultima Handicap Chase 2025
1st: Myretown (13/2F) - Lucinda Russell / P Wadge - OR 127 - made all, stayed on strongly
2nd: The Changing Man (7/1) - Tizzard / Powell - always prominent, no match for winner
3rd: Malina Girl (14/1) - Cromwell - stayed on from midfield
4th: Happygolucky (28/1) - Rowley - 11yo, midfield, kept on
Key: Winner came from a Kelso Class 3 Novices Handicap Chase - under the radar at a low mark. Lucinda Russell's third win in this race (50%).
Ultima 2026 Betting Strategy
✅ BACK
- Lucinda Russell runners (3/6, 50%)
- Derek Fox rides (2/5, 40%)
- 5th favourite in betting (+25 P/L)
- 9/2 - 8/1 shots (5 wins, +10)
- 11yo horses (+19 P/L value age)
- Horses with win at 3m2f+ (3 wins, +22)
- Becher/Coral Gold Cup trial paths
❌ AVOID
- Gordon Elliott (0/14)
- Venetia Williams (0/16)
- 50/1+ outsiders (0 wins)
- 14/1-20/1 range (0 wins, -50 P/L)
- 10yo horses (0 wins from 31 runners)
- Horses 91+ days since run (-30 P/L)
Horses to Watch
| Horse | Odds | Why Watch |
|---|---|---|
| Myretown | 8/1 | Lucinda Russell (50%) - but OR risen 127→142 |
| Twig | 33/1 | Won Becher (winning path +50 P/L) |
| Herakles Westwood | 20/1 | Won Cheltenham NYD (winning path +10 P/L) |
| Katate Dori | 20/1 | Won Kempton G3 + 2nd Cheltenham NYD - double path |
| Val Dancer | 33/1 | 3rd Becher + Melanie Rowley trainer |
| The Changing Man | 16/1 | 2nd 2025 Ultima - consistent placer |
| Happygolucky | - | 11yo (value age) + 4th 2025 Ultima + Rowley |
⚠️ Trials Still To Come: Haydock Grand National Trial (Feb), Reynoldstown Novices Chase (Feb), Classic Chase (Jan), Peter Marsh Chase (Jan). This page will be updated as more trial form emerges.
Get Expert Ultima Tips
Our verified tipsters are publicly vetted with 2-3 months of transparent results. Join free trials and watch real results before subscribing.
Data source: HorseRaceBase Big Race Trends | Last updated: January 2026
Related: Gold Cup Trends | Coral Gold Cup Analysis | Festival Hub