NH Chase Challenge Cup (Princess Royal) | Day 4, 5:20pm | Cheltenham Festival 2026
Last updated: January 2026 | Data source: HorseRaceBase | 3m 5f 201y Novice Handicap Chase
The NH Chase Challenge Cup trends reveal this amateur riders' marathon rewards staying power over speed. At 3m 5f 201y, this is Cheltenham's ultimate test of stamina for novice chasers, and our analysis shows 7-year-olds dominate with Gordon Elliott emerging as THE trainer to follow. The 2025 winner Haiti Couleurs (7/2 JF) came from a "non-compiled race" route - a pattern that's produced 9 of the last 17 winners.
✅ Key Finding
7yo horses: 7/72 (10%), BUT this is the prime age - 10yo horses at 33% win rate (+12.5 P/L) are the value play!
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Current Ante-Post Market (January 2026)
The market shows a wide-open betting heat - notably, the Irish trial winners (Better Days Ahead, Croke Park, Dancing City) aren't yet priced, suggesting they may target the Brown Advisory or other races.
| Horse | Odds | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Out | 8/1 | Market leader |
| Argento Boy | 10/1 | - |
| Now Is The Hour | 10/1 | Fell 2 out when 2nd in 2025 NH Chase! |
| One Big Bang | 10/1 | - |
| Will The Wise | 12/1 | - |
| Kinturk Kalanisi | 12/1 | - |
| The Wallpark | 12/1 | - |
| Grand Geste | 14/1 | - |
| Will Do | 16/1 | 3rd 2025 NH Chase (Elliott) |
| Doyen Quest | 16/1 | - |
| Gericault Roque | 25/1 | 10th 2025 NH Chase |
| Herakles Westwood | - | 7th 2025 NH Chase - won Cheltenham NYD Jan 2026! |
⚠️ Key Observation: Now Is The Hour fell 2 out when travelling well in 2nd place in the 2025 NH Chase. Remember: horses who FELL LTO have a 33% win rate (+9.88 P/L) in this race! He's one to watch if returning here.
Race Overview
The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup is Cheltenham's marathon for amateur riders, testing both horse stamina and jockey nerve over the testing 3m 5f 201y trip. The race has been won by future Gold Cup heroes (Galvin 2021) and provides an intriguing trial for National contenders.
Recent Winners:
- 2025: Haiti Couleurs (7/2 JF) - Curtis, Ben Jones - 8yo, OR 135
- 2024: Corbetts Cross (15/8) - Emmet Mullins - 7yo, OR 150
- 2023: Gaillard Du Mesnil (10/11F) - W Mullins - 7yo, OR 155
- 2022: Stattler (2/1) - W Mullins - 7yo, OR 153
- 2021: Galvin (7/2) - I Ferguson - 7yo, OR 152 (future Gold Cup winner!)
ℹ️ Amateur Riders Note
This is an amateur riders' race - jockey booking is crucial. Patrick Mullins (30% win rate) and J J Codd (38% win rate, +29 P/L) are the elite amateurs to follow.
NH Chase Challenge Cup Trends - Profiler Sweet Spots
Age Analysis
| Age | Runs | Wins | SR% | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6yo | 16 | 1 | 6% | -7.00 |
| 7yo | 72 | 7 | 10% | -18.71 |
| 8yo | 47 | 1 | 2% | -42.50 |
| 9yo | 13 | 0 | 0% | -13.00 |
| 10yo 💰 | 6 | 2 | 33% | +12.50 |
⚡ Age Sweet Spot
7yo is the most common winning age BUT 10-year-olds at 33% strike rate (+12.50 P/L) are the value play. The 2020 winner Ravenhill was 10yo at 12/1!
Market Position
| Position | Runs | Wins | SR% | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite | 12 | 2 | 17% | -5.59 |
| 2nd Favourite | 11 | 3 | 27% | +0.38 |
| 3rd Favourite | 11 | 2 | 18% | +2.50 |
| 4th Favourite | 13 | 1 | 8% | 0.00 |
| 5th Favourite 💰 | 9 | 2 | 22% | +15.00 |
| 6th-10th | 51 | 1 | 2% | -47.00 |
Unusual Angles
| Angle | Runs | Wins | SR% | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fell LTO 🔥 | 6 | 2 | 33% | +9.88 |
| Unseated LTO | 2 | 1 | 50% | +3.50 |
| 91-365 days since run | 9 | 3 | 33% | +25.50 |
| OR 150-155 | 9 | 4 | 44% | +4.20 |
| 5+ wins at shorter distance | 31 | 4 | 13% | +8.88 |
✅ Unusual But Profitable
Horses who FELL last time out have a 33% win rate (+9.88 P/L)! And fresh horses (91-365 days since run) also 33% (+25.50 P/L). Don't dismiss horses who've had a mishap or break.
Trial Paths - Where Do Winners Come From?
| Previous Race (Trial) | Runners | Wins | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non-compiled races | 38 | 0 | 0 |
| Ten Up Novice Chase 🔥 | 5 | 1 | +36.00 |
| December G1 Novice Chase (3m) | 3 | 2 | +6.25 |
| Reynoldstown Novices Chase | 3 | 1 | +6.00 |
| Leopardstown G1 2m5f Novice Chase | 2 | 2 | +5.41 |
| Cheltenham Jan Novices Hcp Chase | 2 | 1 | +10.00 |
| Towton Novices Chase | 2 | 1 | +4.00 |
| December Gold Cup 💰 | 1 | 1 | +33.00 |
| Woodlands Park G2 | 6 | 1 | -3.00 |
| Haydock GNT | 3 | 0 | -3.00 |
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Trainer & Jockey Records
Trainer Stats
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | SR% | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Elliott 🔥 | 16 | 3 | 19% | +23.00 |
| Willie Mullins | 17 | 3 | 18% | -6.59 |
| Ben Pauling | 5 | 1 | 20% | +10.00 |
| Rebecca Curtis | 7 | 1 | 14% | -2.50 |
| Emmet Mullins | 1 | 1 | 100% | +1.88 |
| Jonjo O'Neill | 3 | 1 | 33% | +6.00 |
Jockey Stats (Amateur Riders)
| Jockey | Rides | Wins | SR% | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J J Codd 🔥💰 | 8 | 3 | 38% | +29.00 |
| Patrick Mullins | 10 | 3 | 30% | +0.41 |
| Derek O'Connor | 9 | 2 | 22% | +2.88 |
| J W Kennedy | 2 | 1 | 50% | +2.50 |
| Ben Jones | 1 | 1 | 100% | +3.50 |
2025/26 Key Trial Form
Ten Up Novice Chase (9 Feb 2025) ✅ RUN
1st: Better Days Ahead (1/2F) - Elliott, Sam Ewing - OR 152, 7yo - tracked leader, led 4 out, stayed on well
2nd: Stellar Story (13/2) - Elliott - NK behind, headway 2 out, kept on
3rd: Three Card Brag (7/2) - Elliott - led until 4 out, mistake 3 out
UR: Chosen Witness (10/1) - Mullins/Townend - mistake and unseated 4 out
🎯 Elliott 1-2-3! Better Days Ahead looks the obvious contender - proven stamina, winning jockey.
Woodlands Park G2 Novice Chase (26 Jan 2025) ✅ RUN
1st: Dancing City (8/11F) - Mullins, Townend - made all, stayed on well, comfort win
2nd: Bioluminescence (7/2) - Cromwell - tracked leader, no impression
3rd: Good Land (4/1) - Connell
Woodlands Park winners have 1 win from 6 runners in NH Chase (-3 P/L) - not the best path.
December G1 Novice Chase 3m (26 Dec 2024)
1st: Croke Park (7/2) - Elliott, Sam Ewing - led, just held on HD
2nd: Better Days Ahead (10/11F) - Elliott - just failed HD
3rd: Buddy One (11/1)
🔥 KEY TRIAL: 2 winners, +6.25 P/L from December G1 path. Croke Park and Better Days Ahead both live contenders.
Reynoldstown Novices Chase (15 Feb 2025) ✅ RUN
1st: The Changing Man (7/2) - Tizzard, Brendan Powell - made all, coasted home by 24L
2nd: Leave Of Absence (14/1) - Honeyball
UR: Jingko Blue (8/13F) - Henderson - slipped and unseated 3rd
The Changing Man dominated but stepped up from handicaps. Jingko Blue's mishap keeps him interesting if targeting NH Chase.
Haydock Grand National Trial (15 Feb 2025) ✅ RUN
1st: Famous Bridge (6/1) - Nicky Richards - chased leaders, led before last
2nd: Apple Away (11/4F) - Lucinda Russell
UR: Yeah Man (4/1) - Cromwell - challenging when unseated 14th
Haydock GNT runners: 0 wins from 3 in NH Chase. Grand National target more likely.
Trials Still To Run
- Leopardstown G1 2m5f Novice Chase (Feb 2026) - 2 winners from this path (+5.41 P/L) 🔥
- Altcar Novices Chase (Feb 2026) - 1 winner, +14 P/L
- Towton Novices Chase (Feb 2026) - 1 winner, +5 P/L
Key Contenders Analysis
The market currently shows horses not from the major Irish trials - suggesting Better Days Ahead, Croke Park and Dancing City may target the Brown Advisory instead. Key angle: Now Is The Hour fell when 2nd in 2025 and the "Fell LTO" trend shows 33% win rate!
| Horse | Odds | Fits Trends? |
|---|---|---|
| Now Is The Hour | 10/1 | ✅ FELL 2 out when 2nd 2025 NH Chase - FELL LTO = 33% win rate! Cromwell trainer. |
| Wade Out | 8/1 | ⚠️ Market leader - need trial path confirmation |
| Will Do | 16/1 | ⚠️ 3rd 2025 NH Chase (Elliott 19%), 8yo, stayed on well |
| Herakles Westwood | 20/1 | ⚠️ 7th 2025 NH Chase BUT won Cheltenham NYD Jan 2026 - proven Cheltenham form |
| Argento Boy | 10/1 | ⚠️ Market mover - need form data |
| Gericault Roque | 25/1 | ❌ 10th 2025 NH Chase (tailed off), 9yo (0% win rate at 9yo) |
Irish Trial Horses (Likely Brown Advisory)
| Horse | Trial | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Better Days Ahead | Won Ten Up (1/2F), 2nd Dec G1 | Elliott, 7yo - likely Brown Advisory target |
| Croke Park | Won Dec G1 (beat BDA by HD) | Elliott, 6yo - likely Brown Advisory target |
| Dancing City | Won Woodlands Park G2 | Mullins, 8yo - likely Brown Advisory target |
✅ Now Is The Hour - Key Angle
Now Is The Hour fell 2 out when travelling well in 2nd place in the 2025 NH Chase (Cromwell/Donoghue). The "Fell LTO" angle shows 33% win rate (+9.88 P/L). He's proven at the trip and track - a faller returning fits a profitable trend!
Betting Strategy Summary
✅ DO
- Back 7yo horses (most winners)
- Look for 10yo at big prices (+12.5 P/L)
- Follow Gordon Elliott (19%, +23 P/L)
- Note J J Codd rides (38%, +29 P/L)
- Consider horses who FELL LTO (33%!)
- Target Ten Up & Dec G1 trial form
❌ DON'T
- Blindly back favourites (17% only)
- Trust Haydock GNT path (0 wins)
- Dismiss fresh horses (91+ days +25 P/L)
- Ignore amateur jockey booking - it matters
💡 Bottom Line: Now Is The Hour (10/1) is the standout angle - fell when 2nd in 2025, and the "Fell LTO" trend shows 33% win rate (+9.88 P/L). He's proven at the trip and track. Will Do (16/1) finished 3rd in 2025 for Gordon Elliott (19%, +23 P/L). Watch for the Leopardstown G1 2m5f trial - 100% win rate for horses taking that path!
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Data source: HorseRaceBase Big Race Trends | Last updated: January 2026
Related: Cheltenham Festival 2026 Guide | DRF Guide | Gold Cup Trends | Ultima Handicap Chase