Dublin Racing Festival | Sunday 1st February 2026 | Leopardstown | Grade 1, 2m5½f
Last updated: January 2026 | Data source: HorseRaceBase
The Flogas Novice Chase 2026 (formerly Dr P.J. Moriarty Novice Chase) is the most important Brown Advisory trial at Dublin Racing Festival. This 2m5f Grade 1 at Leopardstown has produced 7 Brown Advisory winners from the first 3 finishers at +16.5 P/L - making it the dominant pathway to Cheltenham's 3m novice chase championship. Willie Mullins dominates with 15 wins from 28 runnings, but there's a crucial caveat: the favourite doesn't always deliver at Cheltenham.
✅ Key Finding
Flogas 1st-3rd → Brown Advisory: 29 ran, 7 wins, +16.5 P/L. The December G1 3m Chase at Leopardstown is the key feeder (9 Flogas wins!).
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Flogas Novice Chase 2026 Key Contenders
Based on the trial path data, the December G1 3m Chase at Leopardstown and Greenmount Park (Limerick) are the key feeder races:
| Horse | Trainer | Trial Form | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Final Demand | Willie Mullins | Won Greenmount Dec 2025 (1/3F) - 8L! | Key trial winner. 3 Flogas wins from Greenmount (+9.26 P/L). Made all, easily. |
| Romeo Coolio | Gordon Elliott | Won Drinmore Nov 2025 (8/15F) - 8L | ⚠️ Dominant Drinmore winner BUT Drinmore = 1 win from 5 in Flogas. Skipped Dec G1. |
| Gold Dancer | Willie Mullins | 2nd Greenmount Dec 2025, 2nd Drinmore Nov 2025 | Consistent 2nd. Won Like A Butterfly & Ballybrit. OR 152. |
| Jimmy Du Seuil | Willie Mullins | 4th Greenmount Dec 2025 (11/4) | Disappointed at Limerick - mistakes, weakened. Question mark. |
| Croke Park | Gordon Elliott | Won Dec G1 3m 2024 (7/2) | ⚠️ Won key trial but regressed since. 3rd Tramore Jan 2026 (5/1). |
💡 Key Insight: Final Demand won the Greenmount Park G1 at Limerick by 8 lengths - dominant. That trial has produced 3 Flogas winners at +9.26 P/L. He's the standout contender, especially as he already ticks all the Brown Advisory boxes (Mullins, 7yo, G1 winner).
Flogas → Brown Advisory: The Trial Connection
The Flogas Novice Chase is the most reliable Brown Advisory pointer:
| Flogas Finishers | Brown Advisory Runners | Brown Advisory Winners | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| First 3 (1st-3rd) | 29 | 7 | +16.5 |
| Winners only | 15 | 5 | +10.5 |
Notable Flogas → Brown Advisory winners include:
- Galopin Des Champs (2022) - Won Flogas 4/9F → Won Brown Advisory 6/4F
- Monkfish (2021) - Won Flogas 1/2F → Won Brown Advisory 4/11F
- Faugheen (2020) - Won Flogas 13/8F (aged 12!) → Didn't run Cheltenham (Covid)
- La Bague Au Roi (2019) - Won Flogas 10/11F → 3rd Brown Advisory
⚠️ 2025 Warning: Ballyburn (8/13F) won the 2025 Flogas but made a bad mistake 7th in the Brown Advisory and finished 5th. The favourite doesn't always deliver at Cheltenham! Croke Park (2nd Flogas) finished 7th at Aintree. Impaire Et Passe (3rd Flogas) went on to WIN the Aintree G1 Novice Chase!
Flogas Novice Chase Trial Paths
These races feed INTO the Flogas - the December G1 3m is crucial:
| Previous Race | Ran | Wins | P/L | 2024/25 Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December G1 3m (Leopardstown) | 9 | 9 | +31.15 | Croke Park 7/2 (HD win) |
| Greenmount Park (Limerick) | 3 | 3 | +9.26 | Final Demand 1/3F (8L) |
| Killiney (January) | 2 | 2 | +30 | Lecky Watson 5/4F |
| Leopardstown Boxing Day 2m1f G1 | 2 | 2 | +4.5 | No 2m1f G1 winner this season yet |
| Drinmore (Fairyhouse) | 5 | 1 | -3 | Romeo Coolio 8/15F |
❌ Red Flag: Drinmore winners have a poor record in the Flogas (1 win from 5, -3 P/L). Romeo Coolio won the 2025 Drinmore impressively but skipped the December G1 3m - the dominant feeder race (9 wins, 100% strike rate!).
Flogas Novice Chase Historical Winners
Recent winners and their Cheltenham form:
| Year | Winner | Odds | Trainer | Brown Advisory Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Ballyburn | 8/13F | Mullins | 5th - bad mistake 7th! ❌ |
| 2024 | Fact To File | 6/4 | Mullins | Skipped Cheltenham |
| 2023 | Mighty Potter | Evens | Elliott | 2nd Brown Advisory (5/1) |
| 2022 | Galopin Des Champs | 4/9F | Mullins | Won Brown Advisory (6/4F) ✅ |
| 2021 | Monkfish | 1/2F | Mullins | Won Brown Advisory (4/11F) ✅ |
| 2020 | Faugheen | 13/8F | Mullins | Cheltenham cancelled (Covid) |
| 2019 | La Bague Au Roi | 10/11F | Greatrex | 3rd Brown Advisory |
| 2018 | Monalee | 11/4F | de Bromhead | 3rd Brown Advisory |
Flogas Novice Chase 2025 Result
🏆 Flogas Novice Chase 2025
1st: Ballyburn (8/13F) - Mullins/Townend - tracked leader, led 2 out, rallied to regain lead final furlong, stayed on strongly
2nd: Croke Park (11/1) - Elliott/Ewing - 3rd from 11th, led narrowly at last, headed final furlong, kept on
3rd: Impaire Et Passe (11/4) - Mullins/Slevin - held up 5th, not fluent, kept on one pace
Cheltenham results: Ballyburn 5th (mistake!), Impaire Et Passe won Aintree G1!
Flogas Novice Chase 2026 Betting Strategy
✅ DO
- Back December G1 3m winners (9 wins, 100%!) 🔥
- Back Greenmount Park winners (3 wins, +9.26 P/L)
- Follow 1st-3rd to Brown Advisory (+16.5 P/L)
- Target Mullins runners (15/28 wins)
- Look for 7yo horses (dominant age)
❌ AVOID
- Drinmore winners (1/5 in Flogas, -3 P/L)
- Horses who skipped December G1 3m
- Blindly backing Flogas winners at Brown Advisory
- Gordon Elliott at Brown Advisory (0/9 record!)
Flogas Novice Chase 2026 Analysis
Heading into the Flogas Novice Chase 2026, the key contenders from the trial paths are:
| Horse | Trial Path | Fits Trends? |
|---|---|---|
| Final Demand | Won Greenmount (key path: 3 wins) | ✅ Mullins, will be 7yo, won G1 easily, NOT Elliott - ticks all boxes! |
| Romeo Coolio | Won Drinmore (poor path: 1/5) | ⚠️ Elliott (0/9 Brown Advisory!), skipped Dec G1, Drinmore path weak |
| Gold Dancer | 2nd Greenmount, 2nd Drinmore | ⚠️ Always 2nd - can he win? Mullins, consistent |
| Croke Park | Won Dec G1 2024, but 3rd Tramore Jan 2026 | ❌ Regressing form, Elliott (0/9 record) |
💡 Bottom Line: Final Demand is the clear standout for the Flogas Novice Chase 2026. He won the Greenmount Park G1 by 8 lengths - a trial that has produced 3 Flogas winners. More importantly, he already fits all the Brown Advisory winning trends: Mullins-trained (17% win rate), will be 7yo at Cheltenham (dominant age), and won a G1 first time over fences. Romeo Coolio (Elliott) looks vulnerable given Elliott's 0/9 record at the Brown Advisory and the weak Drinmore → Flogas connection (1/5, -3 P/L).
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Data source: HorseRaceBase Big Race Trends | Last updated: January 2026 | See also: Racing Post Cheltenham Guide
Related: Brown Advisory Trends | DRF Complete Guide | Festival Hub