Dawn Run Mares Novice Hurdle 2026: Trends, Statistics & Betting Tips
Day 3 | Thursday 12th March 2026 | 1:30pm | Grade 2, 2m1f
Last updated: January 2026 | Data source: HorseRaceBase
The Dawn Run Mares Novice Hurdle has been running since 2016 and produces fascinating betting patterns. Our Dawn Run 2026 trends analysis reveals the key age profile, trial pathways and outsider angles that have produced winners at big prices.
⚠️ KEY INSIGHT: Six-year-old mares have won ALL 6 renewals since 2020. The favourite has failed to win in 6 consecutive runnings (0/6 since 2019). Willie Mullins dominates the trials but has just 1 win from 24 Festival runners (4% SR). This race rewards patient handicappers!
Dawn Run 2026: Recent Winners
| Year | Winner | Age | Odds | Trainer | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Air Of Entitlement | 6 | 16/1 | H de Bromhead | R Blackmore |
| 2024 | Golden Ace | 6 | 10/1 | J Scott | L Williams |
| 2023 | You Wear It Well | 6 | 16/1 | J Snowden | G Sheehan |
| 2022 | Love Envoi | 6 | 15/2 | H Fry | J Burke |
| 2021 | Telmesomethinggirl | 6 | 5/1 | H de Bromhead | R Blackmore |
| 2020 | Concertista | 6 | 9/2 | W Mullins | D Jacob |
| 2019 | Eglantine Du Seuil | 5 | 50/1 | W Mullins | N Fehily |
| 2018 | Laurina | 5 | 4/7 | W Mullins | P Townend |
| 2017 | Lets Dance | 5 | 11/8 | W Mullins | R Walsh |
| 2016 | Limini | 5 | 8/11 | W Mullins | R Walsh |
Dawn Run 2026: The Winner's Profile
Age Analysis (Last 10 Years)
| Age | Runners | Winners | Win% | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4yo | 6 | 0 | 0% | -6.00 ❌ |
| 5yo | 38 | 0 | 0% | -38.00 ❌ |
| 6yo 🔥🔥🔥 | 45 | 6 | 13% | +20.00 |
| 7yo | 15 | 0 | 0% | -15.00 ❌ |
| 8yo | 4 | 0 | 0% | -4.00 ❌ |
✅ THE GOLDEN AGE: 6-year-old mares have won 100% of renewals since 2020. All 6 winners in the last 6 years have been 6yo. No other age has won - not 5yo (38 runners), not 7yo (15 runners). This is THE defining trend!
Market Position (Last 10 Years)
| Position | Runners | Winners | Win% | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite | 6 | 0 | 0% | -6.00 ❌ |
| 2nd Fav | 6 | 1 | 17% | 0.00 |
| 3rd Fav 🔥 | 7 | 2 | 29% | +9.50 |
| 4th Fav 🔥 | 5 | 1 | 20% | +3.50 |
| 8th-9th Fav | 11 | 2 | 18% | +23.00 |
⚠️ FAVOURITE CURSE: The favourite hasn't won since Laurina in 2018 - that's 0/6 in the last 6 years! Sweet spot is 3rd-4th favourite (3 wins from 12, 25% SR). Outsiders at 8th-9th in the market have also delivered.
Odds Bracket (Last 10 Years)
| Odds | Runners | Winners | Win% | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4/1 | 7 | 0 | 0% | -7.00 ❌ |
| 9/2 - 6/1 🔥🔥 | 6 | 2 | 33% | +5.50 |
| 13/2 - 12/1 | 23 | 2 | 9% | -3.50 |
| 14/1 - 20/1 🔥🔥 | 8 | 2 | 25% | +26.00 |
| 22/1+ | 64 | 0 | 0% | -64.00 ❌ |
💡 SWEET SPOT PRICING: Two clear value brackets: 9/2-6/1 (33% SR) and 14/1-20/1 (25% SR, +26.00 P/L). Short prices (under 4/1) have stopped winning. Too long (22/1+) doesn't work either - 0/64!
Dawn Run 2026: Trainer & Jockey Stats
Trainers (10 Years)
| Trainer | Runners | Winners | Win% | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W Mullins | 24 | 1 | 4% | -18.50 ⚠️ |
| H de Bromhead 🔥🔥 | 13 | 2 | 15% | +10.00 |
| J Snowden 🔥 | 2 | 1 | 50% | +15.00 |
| H Fry 🔥 | 2 | 1 | 50% | +6.50 |
| J Scott 🔥 | 1 | 1 | 100% | +10.00 |
| G Elliott | 6 | 0 | 0% | -6.00 |
⚠️ THE MULLINS PARADOX: Willie Mullins dominates all the trials but has just 1 win from 24 Festival runners (4% SR, -18.50 P/L). Last win: Concertista 2020. Meanwhile, Henry de Bromhead has 2 wins from 13 (15% SR). Smaller British yards excel!
Jockeys (10 Years)
| Jockey | Rides | Winners | Win% | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R Blackmore (retired) | 6 | 2 | 33% | +17.00 |
| Jonathan Burke 🔥 | 3 | 1 | 33% | +5.50 |
| Gavin Sheehan 🔥 | 3 | 1 | 33% | +14.00 |
| P Townend | 6 | 0 | 0% | -6.00 ❌ |
| D Mullins | 5 | 0 | 0% | -5.00 |
✅ DE BROMHEAD DOMINANCE: Henry de Bromhead has 2 wins from 13 runners (15% SR, +10.00 P/L). Both came with Rachael Blackmore (now retired) aboard Telmesomethinggirl 2021 and Air Of Entitlement 2025. De Bromhead remains the trainer to follow - watch who gets the leg-up on his 6yo mares!
Dawn Run 2026 Key Trials
| Trial Race | Winners | P/L | Key Winners |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jane Seymour (Sandown) 🔥🔥 | 2 | +23.50 | You Wear It Well 16/1, Love Envoi 15/2 |
| Fairyhouse G3 Mares Novice 🔥 | 2 | +1.30 | Telmesomethinggirl, Concertista |
| DRF Mares Handicap 🔥 | 2 | +9.50 | Emerging pathway |
| Leopardstown G1 2m6f | 1 | +11.38 | Lets Dance 11/8 (2017) |
Season Runs & Days Since Run
| Factor | Best Profile | SR | P/L | Avoid |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Runs | 2 runs this season 🔥 | 11% | +10.00 | 5+ runs (0/21) |
| Days Since Run | 16-30 days 🔥 | 8% | +1.50 | 8-15 days (0%) |
| LTO Position | 3rd LTO 🔥 | 13% | +31% place rate | 2nd LTO (0/16) |
Dawn Run 2025 Full Result
| Pos | Horse | Age | Trainer | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Air Of Entitlement | 6 | H de Bromhead | 16/1 |
| 2nd | Sixandahalf | 5 | G Cromwell | 85/40F |
| 3rd | Diva Luna | 6 | B Pauling | 12/1 |
| 4th | Karoline Banbou | 5 | W Mullins | 10/1 |
| 6th | Galileo Dame | 4 | J P O'Brien | 9/2 |
| 11th | Aurora Vega | 7 | W Mullins | 9/1 |
Key Takeaways: Air Of Entitlement (6yo, 16/1, de Bromhead) - classic profile. Favourite Sixandahalf (5yo) - wrong age. Diva Luna and Karoline Banbou now chasing.
Dawn Run 2026: Market Analysis
| Horse | Odds | Trainer | Age | Trends Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bambino Fever | 7/2F | W Mullins | 6 | ⚠️ Right age, WRONG price/trainer |
| Oldschool Outlaw 🔥 | 8/1 | G Cromwell | 6 | ✅ Perfect profile |
| La Conquiere | 10/1 | W Mullins | 5 | ⚠️ Wrong age (5yo) |
| Carrigmoornaspruce 🔥 | 16/1 | G Elliott | 6 | ✅ Perfect price/age |
| Ellen Kelly 🔥 | 20/1 | W Mullins | 6 | ✅ Right age, big price |
| Nirisque 🔥 | 25/1 | W Mullins | 6 | ✅ Right age, value price |
Dawn Run 2026 Betting Strategy Summary
✅ BACK:
- 6-year-old mares - 100% of winners since 2020
- 9/2-6/1 odds bracket - 33% strike rate
- 14/1-20/1 odds bracket - 25% SR, +26.00 P/L
- Henry de Bromhead runners - 15% SR, +10.00 P/L
- 2 runs this season - Lightly raced improvers
- 3rd-4th favourite - 25% combined SR
- Jane Seymour trial form - 2 winners, +23.50 P/L
❌ AVOID:
- The favourite - 0/6 since 2019 ❌
- 5-year-olds - 0/38 (last 10 years) ❌
- 7-year-olds+ - 0/19 runners ❌
- Willie Mullins at short prices - 4% SR
- 2nd LTO - 0/16 in 10 years ❌
- 22/1+ - 0/64 ❌
- Paul Townend - 0/6 despite Mullins volume
🎯 DAWN RUN 2026 EARLY CONTENDERS
OLDSCHOOL OUTLAW (6yo, 8/1, Cromwell) - Perfect age, perfect price range, from same yard as Sixandahalf (2nd 2025). TOP PICK
CARRIGMOORNASPRUCE (6yo, 16/1, Elliott) - Right age, right price bracket (14/1-20/1 has +26 P/L). EACH-WAY VALUE
ANY DE BROMHEAD 6YO - De Bromhead has 2 wins from this race. Watch for his lead jockey booking on any 6yo mare.
Data source: HorseRaceBase | Last updated: January 2026
See also: Mares Hurdle 2026 | Mares Chase 2026 | Champion Hurdle 2026