The Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase (Day 3, 14:50) is the Festival's most predictable race. Run over 3m5½f on Cheltenham's unique cross country course with 32 fences, this limited handicap for the specialist banks and hedges brigade rewards experience and course knowledge above all else. There was no race in 2024.
🎯 KEY FINDING
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View Tipster RankingsRecent Winners
| Year | Winner | SP | Trainer | Jockey | Trial |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Stumptown | 5/2F | Cromwell | Donoghue | Dec XC ✓ |
| 2024 | NO RACE | ||||
| 2023 | Delta Work | 11/10F | Elliott | Donoghue | Dec XC ✓ |
| 2022 | Delta Work | 5/2F | Elliott | Kennedy | Nov XC ✓ |
| 2021 | Tiger Roll | 9/2 | Foster | Donoghue | Legend 3rd |
| 2020 | Easysland | 3/1 | Cottin | Plouganou | Dec XC ✓ |
| 2019 | Tiger Roll | 5/4F | Elliott | Donoghue | - |
| 2018 | Tiger Roll | 7/1 | Elliott | Donoghue | - |
| 2017 | Cause Of Causes | 4/1 | Elliott | Codd | Dec XC ✓ |
| 2016 | Josies Orders | 15/8F | Bolger | Carberry | Dec XC ✓ |
🐯 The Tiger Roll Factor
Tiger Roll won this race THREE times (2018-19-21), cementing his legend. Keith Donoghue rode him in all three victories and remains the undisputed king of cross country racing at Cheltenham.
Market Position
This race is utterly dominated by market leaders. The favourite and second favourite have combined for 8 of the last 10 winners.
| Position | Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | P/L (1pt) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite | 10 | 5 | 50% | +4.23 |
| 2nd Favourite | 10 | 3 | 30% | +4.50 |
| 3rd Favourite | 12 | 1 | 8% | -4.00 |
| 4th Favourite | 10 | 0 | 0% | -10.00 |
| 5th-7th Fav | 35 | 1 | 3% | -18.00 |
| 8th+ Fav | 77 | 0 | 0% | -77.00 |
📊 The Numbers Don't Lie
80% of winners came from the top 2 in the market. Only Rivage D'Or (16/1, 2015) has won from outside the top 6 in the betting in the last 20 years.
Odds Brackets
| Odds Range | Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | P/L (1pt) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evens - 6/4 | 3 | 2 | 67% | +1.35 |
| 13/8 - 9/4 | 2 | 1 | 50% | +0.88 |
| 5/2 - 4/1 | 9 | 4 | 44% | +7.00 |
| 9/2 - 6/1 | 10 | 1 | 10% | -4.50 |
| 13/2 - 8/1 | 9 | 1 | 11% | -1.00 |
| 17/2 - 12/1 | 19 | 0 | 0% | -19.00 |
| 14/1 - 20/1 | 23 | 1 | 4% | -6.00 |
| 22/1+ | 78 | 0 | 0% | -78.00 |
⚠️ Big Price Wasteland
0 winners from 78 runners at 22/1 or bigger. The single-figure-priced horses dominate completely in this specialist event.
Trial Pathways
The December XC Chase at Cheltenham is THE key trial. The pathway from this race to Festival glory is well-trodden.
| Trial Race | Winners | P/L (1pt) | Key Horses |
|---|---|---|---|
| December XC Chase (Cheltenham) | 5 | +21.50 | Stumptown, Delta Work, Easysland |
| PP Hogan XC (Punchestown Feb) | 4 | +24.00 | Tiger Roll, Josies Orders |
| Boyne Hurdle | 3 | +6.85 | - |
| November XC Chase | 2 | +8.00 | Delta Work 2022 |
| Irish Gold Cup | 1 | +2.50 | Delta Work |
🏆 The December → March Pipeline
5 of last 10 winners came via the December XC Chase at Cheltenham. Experience on the unique cross country course is invaluable - you can't replicate it anywhere else.
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Browse All TipstersTrainer Statistics (20 Years)
| Trainer | Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | P/L (1pt) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Elliott | 24 | 5 | 21% | -3.15 |
| Gavin Cromwell | 2 | 1 | 50% | +1.50 |
| David Cottin (FR) | 4 | 1 | 25% | 0.00 |
| Denise Foster | 3 | 1 | 33% | +2.50 |
| Enda Bolger | 19 | 1 | 5% | -16.12 |
| Tony Martin | 2 | 1 | 50% | +15.00 |
🔄 Changing of the Guard
Gordon Elliott dominated with Tiger Roll & Delta Work (5 wins). Now Gavin Cromwell is the emerging force - Stumptown won in 2025, and Cromwell has multiple contenders for 2026 including Final Orders (Dec XC winner) and Vanillier.
Jockey Statistics (20 Years)
| Jockey | Rides | Winners | Strike Rate | P/L (1pt) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith Donoghue | 7 | 5 | 71% | +14.35 |
| Jack Kennedy | 1 | 1 | 100% | +2.50 |
| Jonathan Plouganou | 4 | 1 | 25% | 0.00 |
| Jamie Codd | 4 | 1 | 25% | +1.00 |
| Davy Russell | 7 | 1 | 14% | +10.00 |
| Nina Carberry | 3 | 1 | 33% | -0.12 |
👑 King Keith
Keith Donoghue has won 5 of his 7 rides in this race - an astonishing 71% strike rate. He partnered Tiger Roll to all three wins and won on Stumptown in 2025. When Donoghue rides in the XC Chase, you take notice.
Age Profile
| Age | Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | P/L (1pt) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6yo | 6 | 1 | 17% | -2.00 |
| 7yo | 8 | 0 | 0% | -8.00 |
| 8yo | 20 | 3 | 15% | -5.62 |
| 9yo | 31 | 3 | 10% | -20.25 |
| 10yo | 35 | 2 | 6% | -15.90 |
| 11yo | 21 | 1 | 5% | -15.50 |
| 12yo+ | 33 | 0 | 0% | -33.00 |
The 8-10yo age bracket is the sweet spot, accounting for 8 of the last 10 winners. Older horses (12+) have not won this race - even Tiger Roll won his third aged 11.
Days Since Last Run
| Days Since Run | Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | P/L (1pt) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16-30 days | 27 | 2 | 7% | -19.25 |
| 31-60 days | 78 | 4 | 5% | -64.52 |
| 61-90 days | 18 | 3 | 17% | -2.50 |
| 91-120 days | 15 | 0 | 0% | -15.00 |
| 121-365 days | 8 | 1 | 13% | +9.00 |
The 61-90 day window has the best strike rate. This allows horses to recover from the December XC trial while maintaining fitness. The PP Hogan at Punchestown (early Feb) provides a perfect prep for those who bypass the December option.
2025 Race Analysis
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 2025 - Cheltenham, 12 Mar 2025
Race Summary: Stumptown, fresh from winning the December XC Chase, made all the running under Keith Donoghue. The pair were never seriously threatened, staying on well up the hill to win by 7 lengths. Vanillier nearly went the wrong way after the 3rd fence but recovered to finish third - showing the importance of course knowledge on this unique track.
Key 2025/26 Trial Form
December XC Chase 2025 - Cheltenham, 12 Dec 2025
Final Orders led from the 8th fence and won convincingly at 16/1 for the Cromwell/Donoghue combination. The beaten favourite Jarrive De Lest made a bad mistake at the 26th but still finished second - both will be major players in March.
PP Hogan XC Chase 2025 - Punchestown, 3 Feb 2025
Vanillier bolted up by 18 lengths at Punchestown. This is the other key trial - previous winners via this route include Tiger Roll and Josies Orders.
Where Are They Now? (2025 Placed Horses)
| Horse | 2025 Pos | Current Status | 2026 Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stumptown | 1st | Defending champ, missed Aintree (PU), fresh | 5/2F |
| Latenightpass | 2nd | Now 13yo, faded Dec XC (7th) | 16/1 |
| Vanillier | 3rd | Won Punchestown Feb 2025 easily | 16/1 |
| The Goffer | 4th | 3rd Aintree Topham, solid | 10/1 |
| Mister Coffey | 5th | Blundered badly Dec XC (11th) | 20/1 |
Current 2026 Market
| Horse | Price | Trainer | Key Form |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stumptown | 5/2F | Cromwell | Won 2025, Dec XC '24 winner |
| Desertmore House | 5/1 | - | - |
| Final Orders | 7/1 | Cromwell | Won Dec XC 2025 |
| Jarrive De Lest | 8/1 | E Mullins | 2nd Dec XC 2025 |
| The Goffer | 10/1 | Elliott | 4th 2025, 3rd Aintree |
| Vanillier | 16/1 | Cromwell | Won Punchestown Feb |
| Iceo Madrik | 14/1 | Cottin | 3rd Dec XC 2025 |
| Mister Coffey | 20/1 | Henderson | 11th Dec XC, errors |
| Chemical Energy | 33/1 | Elliott | 6th 2025 |
| Fakir D'Oudairies | 33/1 | - | Chase convert |
📈 Market Insight
Gavin Cromwell has FOUR horses in the top 7 of the market: Stumptown (5/2F), Final Orders (7/1), Vanillier (16/1), and Peaches And Cream. The stable dominance mirrors what Elliott achieved with Tiger Roll & Delta Work.
Strategy Summary
✅ BACK
- Favourite (50% SR)
- 2nd favourite (30% SR)
- December XC Chase winners
- PP Hogan Punchestown winners
- Keith Donoghue rides (71% SR!)
- Gavin Cromwell runners
- 8-10 year olds
- 61-90 days since last run
- Single-figure prices only
❌ AVOID
- 4th favourite or bigger (0% from 4th-16th)
- 22/1+ (0 from 78 runners)
- 12yo+ (0 winners)
- 7yo (0 winners, lack experience)
- First-time XC runners
- 91-120 days since run (0%)
- Horses with jumping issues
🎯 THE FORMULA
Back the December XC Chase winner if priced 5/1 or shorter. If that horse is ridden by Keith Donoghue, you have the ideal combination. In 2026, that points firmly to Final Orders (won Dec XC) and Stumptown (defending champ) - both trained by Cromwell and partnered by Donoghue.
⚠️ Vanillier Value?
Vanillier at 16/1 looks overpriced given he won the Punchestown trial by 18 lengths. However, he nearly went the wrong way in the 2025 race and is now 11yo. The price reflects course concerns, but Cromwell clearly has him in great form.
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