The Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase 2025 (formerly the RSA Chase) is the premier staying novice chase at the Cheltenham Festival, run over 3 miles and about half a furlong. This Grade 1 contest has produced future Gold Cup stars and offers strong betting opportunities. Below, we analyze the key trends, previous winners, and the best bets for this year’s renewal.
Key Trends & Winning Profile
📌 Age: 14 of the last 17 winners were aged 7 or 8.
📌 Experience: 14 of the last 15 winners had between 6 and 13 total runs over hurdles and fences.
📌 Chase Form: 17 of the last 18 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in at least a Grade 2 Chase.
📌 Official Ratings: The last 10 winners had a BHA chase rating of 150+ before the race.
📌 Market: 9 of the last 10 winners came from the top 3 in the betting.
📌 Headgear: No winner has worn headgear in the last 23 renewals.
📌 Kempton Kauto Star Chase (Feltham) Winners: All 22 winners of the Kauto Star Chase to come here have been beaten.
📌 Hurdle Rating: 9 of the last 13 winners were rated at least 143 over hurdles.
📌 Festival Experience: 14 of the last 18 winners had previously run at the Cheltenham Festival.
📌 Trainer Stats:
- Willie Mullins (3 wins in last 7 years) and Paul Nicholls (Topofthegame, 2019) have strong records.
- Gordon Elliott has never won this race.
Recent Winners & Trends Analysis
🏆 2024 – Fact To File (7yo, OR 159, 8/13F, W Mullins) – Won Irish Grade 1 at Leopardstown.
🏆 2023 – The Real Whacker (7yo, OR 153, 8/1, P Neville) – Won the Dipper at Cheltenham.
🏆 2022 – L’Homme Presse (7yo, OR 159, 9/4F, V Williams) – Won G1 Scilly Isles & Dipper Chase.
🏆 2021 – Monkfish (7yo, OR 164, 1/4F, W Mullins) – Dominated Irish Grade 1 scene.
🏆 2020 – Champ (8yo, OR 153, 4/1, N Henderson) – Fell in the Dipper Chase before winning here.
🏆 2019 – Topofthegame (7yo, OR 155, 4/1, P Nicholls) – 2nd in G1 Kauto Star before winning this.
Expert Verdict: Who to Bet On?
✅ Back 7- or 8-year-olds from the top 3 in the market with at least 3 chase starts.
✅ Favour horses who have placed in a Grade 1 or 2 Chase already.
✅ Ignore any runner who fell last time out or won the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton.
✅ Trainers to follow: Mullins, Nicholls, Henderson – avoid Gordon Elliott unless his horse is very well-fancied.
✅ Strong previous Festival form is a big advantage.
Best Bets for Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase 2025 – Top Selections
| 🏇 Horse | 📉 Odds | 🎯 Trainer | 🔥 Age | 📊 OR | ⭐ RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ballyburn | 2/1 | W P Mullins | 7 | – | 167 |
| Dancing City | 3/1 | W P Mullins | 8 | – | 156 |
| Better Days Ahead | 9/1 | Gordon Elliott | 7 | – | 159 |
| Croke Park | 10/1 | Gordon Elliott | 7 | – | 159 |
| Jango Baie | 16/1 | Nicky Henderson | 6 | 153 | 165 |
🏇 Ballyburn & Dancing City fit the key trends with Mullins’ dominance in the race. Ballyburn boasts the highest RPR (167) and is likely to be favourite, though favourites have a mixed record.
🚨 Dark Horse: Jango Baie (16/1) – Nicky Henderson’s best chance with a top hurdles rating (153) and strong chase form.
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