The My Pension Expert Arkle Chase 2025 at the Cheltenham Festival is the premier two-mile novice chase, producing future champion chasers like Altior, Shishkin, and El Fabiolo. Below, we analyze the key trends, past winners, and best betting selections for this year’s renewal.
📊 Key Trends & Winning Profile
✅ Age Matters: 📅 6-7-year-olds dominate — Edwardstone (2022) was the only 8-year-old winner in the last 14 years.
✅ High Ratings: 📈 15 of the last 17 winners were rated 151+ over fences.
✅ Favourites Shine: ⭐ 10 of the last 13 favourites have won — seven at odds-on.
✅ Winning Streak: 🏆 14 of the last 15 winners won their previous race.
✅ Cheltenham Experience: ⛰️ 16 of the last 18 winners had previously raced at Cheltenham.
✅ Top Trainers Dominate: 🏇 Willie Mullins (6 wins) and Nicky Henderson (4 wins) have won 10 of the last 13 renewals.
✅ Solid Jumping Record: 🚀 No winner has come off the back of a fall since Moscow Flyer (2002).
✅ Chase Experience: 🔄 16 of the last 20 winners had 3-4 chase runs before Cheltenham.
✅ Proven Partnership: 👨🎓 All winners this century had already won a race with their jockey.
✅ Hurdle Form: 💪 16 of the last 18 winners were rated 142+ over hurdles.
🏇 Recent Winners & Trends Analysis
| Year | Form | Winner | Age | OR | SP | Trainer | Jockey | Last Race (Days) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 11U | Gaelic Warrior | 6 | 157 | 2/1F | W Mullins (IRE) | P Townend | U G1 Irish Arkle (37) |
| 2023 | 111 | El Fabiolo | 6 | 162 | 11/10F | W Mullins (IRE) | P Townend | 1st G1 Irish Arkle (38) |
| 2022 | B1111 | Edwardstone | 8 | 159 | 5/2F | A King | T Cannon | 1st Kingmaker Warwick (31) |
| 2021 | 111 | Shishkin | 7 | 164 | 4/9F | N Henderson | N de Boinville | 1st G2 Doncaster (45) |
| 2020 | 111121 | Put The Kettle On | 6 | 144 | 16/1 | H de Bromhead (IRE) | A Coleman | 1st G2 Cheltenham (114) |
🔍 Expert Verdict: Who to Bet On?
✅ Focus on 6-7-year-olds with proven form over fences and a rating of 151+.
✅ Irish-trained runners have dominated — W P Mullins and Gordon Elliott hold the key.
✅ Favourites have a strong record — but improving second-favourites have also performed well.
✅ Cheltenham experience is key — previous Festival form is a major positive.
✅ Look for horses that won last time out — only one winner since 2005 had failed to win their prep.
📈 Best Bets for My Pension Expert Arkle Chase 2025 – Top Selections
| 🏇 Horse | 📉 Odds | 🎯 Trainer | 🔥 Age | 📊 OR | ⭐ RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Majborough | 4/7 | W P Mullins | 5 | 162 | 171 |
| L’Eau du Sud | 9/2 | Dan Skelton | 7 | 156 | 162 |
✅ Majborough (4/7)
- ✅ Rated 162 (strong rating)
- ✅ Unbeaten over fences
- ✅ Trained by W P Mullins (6-time Arkle winner)
- ✅ Age 5 (young but exceptional ability)
- ✅ Proven at Grade 1 level
💪 Verdict: The clear standout and fits all key trends — ideal profile to add to Mullins’ Arkle tally.
✅ L’Eau du Sud (9/2)
- ✅ 7 years old (within ideal age range)
- ✅ Rated 156 (competitive)
- ✅ Trained by Dan Skelton (high strike rate at Cheltenham)
- ✅ Strong form over fences and improving
💪 Verdict: Strong second-favourite and capable of challenging Majborough if the favourite underperforms.
🔥 Best Trend Fit: Majborough
✅ Rated above the key 151 benchmark
✅ Trained by W P Mullins
✅ Age and form match winning profile
✅ Short-priced favourite — history favours odds-on favourites
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