The Ultima Handicap Chase is one of the most competitive handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival, run over 3m1f on the Old Course. It often rewards progressive chasers with strong stamina credentials and course form. Below, we analyze the key trends, past winners, and expert betting selections for the 2025 renewal.
📊 Key Trends & Winning Profile
✅ Novices & Second-Season Chasers: 🏇 12 of the last 15 winners were either novices or second-season chasers.
✅ Cheltenham Experience: ⛰️ 9 of the last 12 winners had run at a previous Festival, while the other three had placed at Cheltenham that season.
✅ Age Trends: 📏 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 7 or 8. Only one winner aged 10+ since 2010.
✅ Recent Form: 📅 Winners had run within the last 60 days.
✅ Best RPR Over 3 Miles+: 📈 All winners this century had their best Racing Post Rating (RPR) over at least 3 miles.
✅ Winning Experience: 🏆 21 of the last 27 winners had already won a Class 3 chase or higher.
✅ Handicap Ratings: 📊 10 of the last 12 winners had an official rating between 139–151.
✅ Headgear Advantage: 🎭 9 of the last 13 winners wore some form of headgear.
✅ Fallen No More Than Once: ❌ 21 of the last 23 winners had no more than one career fall.
✅ Newbury Coral Cup Link: 🎯 5 of the last 11 winners ran in the Newbury Ladbroke/Coral Chase.
🏆 Recent Winners & Trends Analysis
| Year | Winner | Age | OR | SP | Trainer | Jockey | Last Race (Days) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Chianti Classico | 7 | 143 | 6/1 | K Bailey | D Bass | 59 (2nd, Kempton 3m) |
| 2023 | Corach Rambler | 9 | 146 | 6/1 jtF | L Russell | D Fox | 108 (4th, Coral GC) |
| 2022 | Corach Rambler | 8 | 140 | 10/1 | L Russell | D Fox | 24 (U, Reynoldstown) |
| 2021 | Vintage Clouds | 11 | 143 | 28/1 | S Smith | R Mania | 25 (3rd, Kelso 3m) |
| 2020 | The Conditional | 8 | 139 | 15/2 | D Bridgewater | B Powell | 59 (4th, Warwick 3m5f) |
🔍 Expert Verdict: Who to Bet On?
✅ Novices and second-season chasers have a strong record – avoid exposed older horses.
✅ Focus on 7-8 year-olds – only one winner aged 10+ since 2010.
✅ Cheltenham form matters – 9 of the last 12 winners had previous Festival form.
✅ Look for horses rated 139–151 – sweet spot for handicap ratings.
✅ Headgear is a positive – 9 of the last 13 winners wore some form of headgear.
✅ Avoid Irish-trained horses – 0 wins from 46 runners since 2006.
📈 Best Bets for Ultima Handicap Chase 2025 – Top Selections
| 🏇 Horse | 📉 Odds | 🎯 Trainer | 🔥 Age | 📊 OR | ⭐ RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Changing Man | 13/2 | Joe Tizzard | 8 | 140 | 158 |
| Katate Dori | 17/2 | Sam Thomas | 7 | 137 | 160 |
| Crebilly | 10/1 | Jonjo O’Neill | 8 | 138 | 163 |
✅ The Changing Man (13/2)
- ✅ Rated 140 (within key range)
- ✅ Second-season chaser
- ✅ Proven at 3 miles+ (best RPR over 3m)
- ✅ Trained by Joe Tizzard – strong strike rate in staying chases
💪 Verdict: Ticks all the key trends – prime age, progressive profile, proven stamina.
✅ Katate Dori (17/2)
- ✅ 7 years old (ideal age)
- ✅ Rated 137 (potentially well-handicapped)
- ✅ Second-season chaser
- ✅ Solid RPR (160) – marks him out as one of the strongest stayers
💪 Verdict: Great value at current price – a novice with ideal stamina and improvement potential.
✅ Crebilly (10/1)
- ✅ Trained by Jonjo O’Neill (3 Ultima wins)
- ✅ Progressive handicap mark
- ✅ 8 years old (within key age range)
- ✅ Strong staying form over 3 miles+
💪 Verdict: Strong Festival pedigree – Jonjo O’Neill knows how to win this race.
🔥 Best Trend Fit: The Changing Man
✅ Second-season chaser
✅ Strong Cheltenham form
✅ Winning profile fits the key trends
🚫 Runners to Avoid:
❌ Irish-Trained Horses: 0 winners from 46 runners since 2006 – tough for them to break the trend.
❌ Older Horses: Only one winner aged 10+ since 2010 – prefer 7-8 year-olds.
❌ Fallers Last Time Out: Corach Rambler (2022) was the first winner off a U/F/P since 1997.
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