The National Hunt Novices’ Chase is one of the most prestigious long-distance novice chases at the Cheltenham Festival. Traditionally a breeding ground for future Grand National and Gold Cup winners, the race is now run as a 0-145 handicap over 3 miles and 6 furlongs — a significant shift from its former conditions status. Despite the changes, the core trends remain strong, and Irish dominance continues. Below, we break down the key trends, past winners, and best betting selections for the 2025 renewal.
📊 Key Trends & Winning Profile
✅ Experience Matters: 🌟 14 of the last 15 winners had contested a Graded Chase.
✅ Proven Stamina: 🏇 26 of the last 28 winners had placed 1st or 2nd in a chase over at least 3 miles.
✅ Chase Experience: 🔬 11 of the last 13 winners had at least 4 runs over fences.
✅ Jumping Fluency: 🔦 Only 2 winners in 34 years had fallen last time out before winning this.
✅ BHA Ratings Benchmark: 📊 Last 12 winners were rated 142+ before the race.
✅ Handicap Experience: ⚖️ 13 of the last 25 winners had run in a handicap chase before — 6 won, 7 placed.
✅ Winning Form: 💪 11 of the last 15 winners had won a chase by October 31st of the previous year.
✅ Trainer Trends: 🎢 Irish-trained horses have won 7 of the last 8 renewals.
✅ Big Names: 👨🎓 Jockeys Patrick Mullins, Jamie Codd, and Derek O’Connor have ridden 10 of the last 13 winners.
✅ Beaten Favourite Woes: 🛑 Only one horse this century has won after being a beaten favourite last time out.
✅ Unsuccessful Trainers: ❌ Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls are yet to win this race.
🏆 Recent Winners & Trends Analysis
| Year | Form | Winner | Age | OR | SP | Trainer | Jockey | Last Race |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 312F | Corbetts Cross | 7 | 150 | 15/8 | E Mullins (IRE) | Mr D O’Connor | F Fell Fairyhouse (34) |
| 2023 | 213 | Gaillard Du Mesnil | 7 | 155 | 10/11F | W Mullins (IRE) | Mr P Mullins | 3rd G1 Leopardstown (37) |
| 2022 | 311 | Stattler | 7 | 153 | 2/1 | W Mullins (IRE) | Mr P Mullins | 1st G3 Navan (44) |
| 2021 | 1111 | Galvin | 7 | 152 | 7/2 | I Ferguson (IRE) | J Kennedy | 1st Cl2 Cheltenham (144) |
| 2020 | 312152F | Ravenhill | 10 | 142 | 12/1 | G Elliott (IRE) | Mr J Codd | F Troytown Handicap Chase (107) |
🔍 Key Takeaways:
✅ Experience over fences and in handicaps is key.
✅ Proven stamina over 3m+ matters — only two winners this century had not won over 3 miles.
✅ Ratings benchmark: Minimum BHA rating of 142 is critical.
✅ Jockeys matter — top amateurs like Patrick Mullins and Jamie Codd dominate this race.
✅ Avoid beaten favourites — only one winner this century had lost as a favourite last time out.
✅ Irish dominance — Irish-trained horses have won 7 of the last 8.
🎯 Expert Verdict: Who to Bet On?
✅ Look for horses rated 142+ with strong form over at least 3 miles.
✅ Irish-trained horses have dominated — favour top Irish yards like Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott.
✅ Avoid horses that fell last time out unless they have previous high-class form.
✅ Be cautious with beaten favourites, as only one has won this century.
✅ Jockeys matter — back horses with Patrick Mullins or Jamie Codd on board.
📈 Best Bets for National Hunt Novices’ Chase 2025 – Top Selections
| 🏇 Horse | 📈 Odds | 👨🎓 Trainer | 💀 Age | 🔬 OR | ⭐ RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now Is The Hour | 9/2 | Gavin Cromwell | 8 | 139 | 145 |
| Haiti Couleurs | 9/2 | Rebecca Curtis | 8 | 135 | 151 |
| Transmission | 5/1 | Neil Mulholland | 8 | 133 | 150 |
| Captain Cody | 15/2 | W P Mullins | 7 | 140 | 145 |
| Sa Majeste | 10/1 | W P Mullins | 7 | 142 | 141 |
✅ Now Is The Hour (9/2)
- ✅ Rated 139 (slightly below the 142+ benchmark but competitive).
- ✅ 8 years old — slightly older than the ideal profile but still within the winning range.
- ✅ Strong form over 3 miles.
- ✅ Proven stamina and jumping ability.
- ❌ Trainer not among the dominant Irish yards.
💪 Verdict: Strong contender, but ideally would be rated 142+.
✅ Haiti Couleurs (9/2)
- ✅ Rated 135 (slightly below the historical benchmark).
- ✅ Proven over 3m+ — stamina guaranteed.
- ✅ Strong jumping form.
- ❌ Trainer lacks a strong Cheltenham Festival record.
💪 Verdict: Each-way chance, but needs to improve to match the Irish runners.
✅ Transmission (5/1)
- ✅ Rated 133 (borderline rating but acceptable).
- ✅ Proven over 3m+.
- ✅ Trained by Neil Mulholland — not a dominant name but respected.
- ✅ Patrick Mullins rides — huge positive.
💪 Verdict: Could run well, but trends suggest others are stronger.
✅ Captain Cody (15/2)
- ✅ Trained by Willie Mullins — big positive.
- ✅ 7 years old — ideal age.
- ✅ Rated 140 — slightly below the benchmark but close enough.
- ❌ Stamina over extended trip needs to be proven.
💪 Verdict: Big player with a top trainer, but stamina is a question mark.
✅ Sa Majeste (10/1)
- ✅ 7 years old — ideal age.
- ✅ Trained by Willie Mullins — proven record in this race.
- ✅ Rated 142 — hits the historical winner’s benchmark.
- ✅ Solid chase form and proven stamina.
💪 Verdict: Excellent trends fit, Mullins factor, and ideal rating. Strong each-way bet.
🚫 Runners to Avoid:
❌ Gericault Roque – High weight, inconsistent form.
❌ Duffle Coat – Rated too high, poor recent form.
❌ Kyntara – Low rating and limited chase experience.
❌ Stuzzikini – Beaten last time out, inconsistent.
💰 Each-Way Value
➡️ Captain Cody (15/2) – Trained by W P Mullins, strong profile.
➡️ Sa Majeste (10/1) – Ideal trends fit, Mullins factor.
➡️ Transmission (5/1) – Proven stamina and Mullins booking adds appeal.
✅ Best Trend Fit: Sa Majeste
✅ Fits all major trends (age, rating, trainer, experience).
✅ Trained by Willie Mullins — dominant in this race.
✅ Strong each-way value at 10/1.
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