The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase is the oldest race at the Cheltenham Festival, first run in 1834. This demanding two-mile test has been a staple of the Festival and was moved from the New Course to the Old Course in 2021, increasing the importance of speed, jumping, and tactical positioning.
This is a notoriously tricky race for punters, with multiple double-figure priced winners in recent years. However, key trends and recent winners provide some clear insights into what to look for when finding the winner.
📊 Key Trends & Winning Profile
✅ Age Matters: 📅 12 of the last 15 winners were aged 7, 8, or 9.
✅ Ratings Range: 📈 The last 14 winners were rated between 136 and 152.
✅ Experience: 🔄 Only three winners since 2000 had more than 12 chase starts.
✅ Seasonal Prep: 🏇 10 of the last 12 winners had no more than 4 chase runs that season.
✅ Festival Experience: ⛰️ 16 of the last 20 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival.
✅ Freshness Counts: 🚀 The last 13 winners had not run in the previous 30 days.
✅ Handicap Trends: 📊 Only two winners since 2004 had won a handicap chase that season.
✅ Conditional Jockeys Struggle: ❌ Only one conditional jockey has won this race since 2000.
✅ No Repeat Winners: 🔄 No horse has won this twice since 1959.
✅ No Headgear: 🚫 Only four of the last 26 winners wore any type of headgear.
🏇 Recent Winners & Trends Analysis
| Year | Winner | Age | OR | SP | Trainer | Jockey | Last Race |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Unexpected Party | 9 | 138 | 12/1 | Dan Skelton | Harry Skelton | 9th Cheltenham 2m4f H’cap (46) |
| 2023 | Maskada | 7 | 142 | 22/1 | Henry de Bromhead | D O’Keefe | 11th Irish Grade A H’cap Chase (38) |
| 2022 | Global Citizen | 10 | 136 | 28/1 | Ben Pauling | Kielan Woods | 3rd Sandown Listed Hurdle (39) |
| 2021 | Sky Pirate | 8 | 152 | 14/1 | Jonjo O’Neill | Nick Schofield | 2nd Warwick G2 Novice Chase (31) |
| 2020 | Chosen Mate | 7 | 147 | 7/2F | Gordon Elliott | Davy Russell | 1st Gowran Beginners’ Chase (50) |
🔍 Key Takeaways:
✅ Irish-trained runners have a strong record – Winning five of the last 12 renewals.
✅ Ratings band of 136–152 is the sweet spot – All recent winners within this range.
✅ Freshness matters – The last 13 winners were off the track for at least 30 days.
✅ Second-season chasers and novices perform well – Recent winners include several novices or lightly raced horses.
✅ Favourites struggle – Only one winning favourite since 2013.
🎯 Expert Verdict: Who to Bet On?
✅ Look for a 7, 8, or 9-year-old with Cheltenham form.
✅ Focus on horses rated between 136–152.
✅ Horses running under a penalty or wearing headgear tend to struggle.
✅ Avoid last year’s winner – No horse has won this twice since 1959.
✅ Irish-trained runners have been profitable to follow – They punch above their numbers.
✅ Dan Skelton is a plotting genius – Unexpected Party won last year from a well-laid-out plan.
📈 Best Bets for Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase 2025 – Top Selections
| 🏇 Horse | 📉 Odds | 🎯 Trainer | 🔥 Age | 📊 OR | ⭐ RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The King Of Prs | 17/2 | Gavin Cromwell | 7 | 138 | 155 |
| My Mate Mozzie | 15/2 | Gavin Cromwell | 9 | 151 | 154 |
| Firefox | 10/1 | Gordon Elliott | 7 | 149 | 149 |
| Jazzy Matty | 9/1 | Cian Collins | 6 | 135 | 147 |
| Conyers Hill | 20/1 | Paul Nolan | 7 | 131 | 154 |
✅ The King Of Prs (17/2)
- ✅ Trained by Gavin Cromwell – top Irish handler with a strong Festival record.
- ✅ Profile fits the trends perfectly – 7 years old, lightly raced, and well-handicapped.
- ✅ Won a competitive Irish handicap chase earlier in the season.
💪 Verdict: Prime contender – Ideal profile and well-handicapped.
✅ My Mate Mozzie (15/2)
- ✅ 9 years old – Ideal age profile.
- ✅ Proven Grade 1 class – Competitive in top-level company.
- ✅ Strong form this season – Solid recent runs in Irish Grade 1s.
💪 Verdict: Top-class contender – Could go close if ground suits.
✅ Firefox (10/1)
- ✅ Trained by Gordon Elliott – Winner in 2020 with Chosen Mate.
- ✅ Well-handicapped on past form – Could be primed for this race.
- ✅ Suited by testing conditions – Could benefit from a strong pace.
💪 Verdict: Each-way value – Dangerous if back to best form.
✅ Jazzy Matty (9/1)
- ✅ Lightly raced 6-year-old – Open to plenty of improvement.
- ✅ Excellent form at shorter trips – Handles Cheltenham well.
- ✅ Represents a smaller yard – Could spring a surprise.
💪 Verdict: Dark horse – Unexposed and well-handicapped.
✅ Conyers Hill (20/1)
- ✅ Trained by Paul Nolan – Strong record with handicappers.
- ✅ Recent winner – Comes here in top form.
- ✅ Good value at the price – Could be a big market mover.
💪 Verdict: Solid outsider – Could sneak into the frame.
🚫 Runners to Avoid
❌ Unexpected Party (6/1) – Won last year; no horse has won twice since 1959.
❌ Dancing On My Own (20/1) – 11 years old – Older horses struggle in this race.
❌ Gaelic Arc (100/1) – Exposed and likely out of his depth.
💰 Each-Way Value
➡️ The King Of Prs (17/2) – Well-handicapped and improving.
➡️ Firefox (10/1) – Gordon Elliott’s record in this race is strong.
🔥Best Trend Fit: The King Of Prs
✅ 7 years old – Ideal age profile.
✅ Well-handicapped – Fits the key OR range.
✅ Irish-trained – Strong record in the race.
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