The Kim Muir Challenge Cup is one of the most competitive handicap chases at the Cheltenham Festival, run over 3 miles 2 furlongs on the New Course. A race that has been dominated by Irish trainers and top amateur jockeys, key trends highlight novices, strong staying form, and proven class in handicaps as crucial factors for success.
📊 Key Trends & Winning Profile
✅ Novices Dominate: 🏇 The last 6 winners were all novice chasers.
✅ Avoid Last-Time-Out Winners: 🚫 Only 2 of the last 22 winners won their last race.
✅ Optimal Ratings Range: 📊 11 of the last 13 winners were rated between 137 and 145.
✅ Festival Form Matters: 🏆 Many past winners had placed at a previous Festival or contested a big handicap chase at the December International Meeting.
✅ Irish Dominance: 🇮🇪 7 of the last 11 winners were Irish-trained, with Irish horses filling 7 of the first 7 places in 2023.
✅ Age Sweet Spot: 📅 17 of the last 20 winners were aged 7-9.
✅ Race Fitness: 💪 The last 20 winners had at least 2 runs that season.
✅ Big Trainers to Avoid? ❌ Neither Paul Nicholls nor Willie Mullins has ever won this race.
✅ Key Jockey Factor: 🏇 Irish amateur riders have won 8 of the last 10 (Jamie Codd & Derek O’Connor have won 6 combined).
✅ Market Clues: 📉 8 of the last 10 winners were SP 10/1 or shorter.
✅ JP McManus Factor: 🟢 JP-owned runners have performed well, even when defying certain trends.
✅ Big Handicaps Matter: 🏇 Most winners had previously run in a G3 or strong handicap.
✅ Lay Beaten Favourites: ❌ Only 2 of the last 51 beaten favourites last time out won this race.
🏇 Recent Winners & Trends Analysis
📅 2025: TBD
📅 2024: Inothewayurthinkin (6yo, OR 145, 13/8F, G Cromwell) – 9th in Leopardstown Handicap Chase (39 days prior)
📅 2023: Angels Dawn (9yo, OR 131, 10/1, S Curling) – Unseated last time in Punchestown 3m4f Handicap Chase (25 days prior)
📅 2022: Chambard (10yo, OR 134, 40/1, V Williams) – 1st in 3m Novice Handicap Chase (11 days prior)
📅 2021: Mount Ida (7yo, OR 142, 3/1F, Mrs D Foster) – 2nd in G2 Thurles Mares’ Chase (50 days prior)
📅 2020: Milan Native (7yo, OR 141, 9/1, G Elliott) – 2nd in Gowran Park Beginners’ Chase (26 days prior)
📅 2019: Any Second Now (7yo, OR 143, 6/1, T Walsh) – 3rd in G2 Navan Ten Up Novices’ Chase (25 days prior)
🔍 Key Takeaways:
✅ Novices dominate.
✅ Irish-trained horses are excelling.
✅ Handicap experience and strong prep runs are crucial.
✅ Avoid last-time-out winners.
✅ Market support is often a strong indicator.
🎯 Expert Verdict: Who to Bet On?
Using the key trends, we’ve identified five strong contenders who match most or all of the key stats.
📈 Best Bets for Kim Muir Challenge Cup 2025 – Top Selections
| 🏇 Horse | 📉 Odds | 🎯 Trainer | 🔥 Age | 📊 OR | ⭐ RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yeah Man | 16/1 | G Cromwell | 8 | – | 144 |
| Johnnywho | 10/1 | J O’Neill | 8 | 140 | 140 |
| La Malmason | 25/1 | G Cromwell | 7 | – | 142 |
| In d’Or | 20/1 | V Williams | 7 | 134 | 139 |
| Hymac | 25/1 | H Fry | 9 | 130 | 137 |
🔥 Why These Selections?
✅ Yeah Man (Gavin Cromwell) – Fits the Irish-trainer trend, ideal rating, and strong form in competitive handicaps.
✅ Johnnywho (Jonjo O’Neill) – Ticks every major trend, expected to be well-ridden by a top amateur.
✅ La Malmason (Gavin Cromwell) – Progressive novice, lightly raced but highly regarded.
✅ In d’Or (Venetia Williams) – Strong handicap form, has improved rapidly, ticks rating and age profile.
✅ Hymac (Harry Fry) – Has strong Graded form over staying trips, solid Cheltenham profile, and expected to be well backed.
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