The Boodles Fred Winter Novices’ Handicap Hurdle is one of the most unpredictable races at the Cheltenham Festival, known for producing big-priced winners and strong performances from lightly raced, well-handicapped 4-year-olds. The 2025 renewal features a competitive field of unexposed juveniles, with strong Irish representation and key form lines from the Naas 4-Y-O Novice Hurdle and other trials. Below, we analyse key trends, past winners, and the best bets for this year’s race.
📊 Key Trends & Winning Profile
✅ Irish Domination: 🇮🇪 The last 7 winners were Irish-trained, with Gordon Elliott responsible for 3 of them.
✅ No Cheltenham Experience: 🏇 No winner had raced at Cheltenham before winning this race.
✅ Flat-Bred Horses Dominate: 🏇 No winner in the last 16 years started their career under National Hunt rules in Britain or Ireland.
✅ French Influence & Paul Nicholls’ Record: 🇫🇷 French-bred horses thrive. Paul Nicholls has had 3 winners and 8 placed from 25 French-breds.
✅ Naas 4-Y-O Novice Hurdle Key Trial: 🎯 4 of the last 6 winners ran in the same Naas race before Cheltenham.
✅ BHA Ratings: 📊 10 of the last 11 winners had a BHA mark between 125 and 139.
✅ Winning Experience: 🏆 None of the last 12 winners had won more than two hurdles before this race.
✅ Last Run in a Non-Handicap: 🚀 Every winner since the race began had their last run outside of a handicap.
✅ Headgear Not Crucial: 🎭 Only 1 winner since 2014 wore headgear.
✅ Lightly Raced Horses: 🏇 12 of the last 20 winners had just 3 hurdle starts before Cheltenham.
✅ Avoid British-Bred Horses: 🇬🇧 British-bred runners are 0-72 in the last 16 years.
✅ Big-Priced Winners: 💰 Since 2010, only one favourite has won this race.
🏆 Recent Winners & Trends Analysis
| Year | Winner | OR | SP | Trainer | Last Race (Days) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Lark In The Mornin | 122 | 9/1 | J O’Brien (IRE) | 57 (3rd, Punchestown) |
| 2023 | Jazzy Matty | 125 | 18/1 | G Elliott (IRE) | 31 (4th, Naas) |
| 2022 | Brazil | 137 | 10/1 | P Roche (IRE) | 31 (1st, Naas) |
| 2021 | Jeff Kidder | 125 | 80/1 | N Meade (IRE) | 80 (7th, Leopardstown G2) |
| 2020 | Aramax | 138 | 12/1 | G Elliott (IRE) | 32 (1st, Naas) |
| 2019 | Band of Outlaws | 139 | 7/2F | J O’Brien (IRE) | 24 (1st, Naas) |
🔍 Key Takeaways:
✅ Irish-trained runners dominate — 7 wins in a row.
✅ Flat-bred horses with strong juvenile hurdle form do well.
✅ No Cheltenham experience required — winners debut here.
✅ Naas 4-Y-O Novice Hurdle is a key prep race.
✅ Avoid favourites — big prices land the spoils.
🎯 Expert Verdict: Who to Bet On?
✅ Look for Irish-trained, Flat-bred horses.
✅ Avoid horses that started their career in British or Irish NH races.
✅ Horses rated 125–139 are ideal.
✅ Look for runners from the Naas 4-Y-O Novice Hurdle.
✅ Big-priced winners are common — don’t be afraid of an outsider.
📈 Best Bets for Boodles Fred Winter 2025 – Top Selections
| 🏇 Horse | ⏳ Odds | 🎯 Trainer | 🔥 Age | 🌟 OR | 📊 RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stencil | 11/2 | Noel George & Amanda Zetterholm | 4 | 135 | 135 |
| Total Look | 6/1 | Gavin Cromwell | 4 | 132 | 130 |
| Beyond Your Dreams | 7/1 | Joseph Patrick O’Brien | 4 | 123 | 122 |
| Puturhandstogether | 10/1 | Joseph Patrick O’Brien | 4 | 130 | 126 |
| Murcia | 12/1 | W P Mullins | 4 | 136 | 130 |
✅ Stencil (11/2)
- ✅ Strong form in key juvenile hurdles.
- ✅ Highly progressive and rated 135.
- ✅ Unexposed, looks well-handicapped.
💪 Verdict: Ticks all the major trends — strong contender.
✅ Total Look (6/1)
- ✅ Trained by Gavin Cromwell — known for targeting this race.
- ✅ Unexposed and improving rapidly.
- ✅ Strong form in graded juvenile races.
💪 Verdict: A clear threat if the ground is soft.
✅ Beyond Your Dreams (7/1)
- ✅ Trained by Joseph O’Brien — has won this race twice.
- ✅ Strong RPR and ideal BHA mark.
- ✅ Lightly raced but well regarded.
💪 Verdict: Looks a likely improver on the day.
✅ Puturhandstogether (10/1)
- ✅ Trained by Joseph O’Brien — proven trainer in this race.
- ✅ Won last time out over hurdles.
- ✅ Strong form in Irish juvenile contests.
💪 Verdict: Could improve further with Festival conditions.
✅ Murcia (12/1)
- ✅ Trained by Willie Mullins — desperate to win this race.
- ✅ Solid form in novice hurdles.
- ✅ Good RPR and ideal BHA mark.
💪 Verdict: Mullins’ best chance of finally breaking his Fred Winter hoodoo.
🚫 Runners to Avoid:
❌ Sony Bill – Paul Townend onboard, but no Grade 1 form.
❌ Quantock Hills – High weight, low RPR — unlikely to figure.
❌ Static – Recent fall and poor jumping record — tough to back.
❌ Wendrock – Outclassed based on ratings and form.
💰 Each-Way Value
➡️ Beyond Your Dreams (7/1) – Proven Joseph O’Brien horse, strong form.
➡️ Murcia (12/1) – Willie Mullins runner in great form.
➡️ Stencil (11/2) – Strong recent form and improving.
✅ Best Trend Fit: Stencil
✅ Strong juvenile form.
✅ Trained in Ireland.
✅ Unexposed and progressive.
✅ Ran well in graded trials.
📩 Get Free Cheltenham Festival Tips & Predictions
💰 Bet365 and SkyBet are paying 5 places — consider this for each-way bets!
At PuntHub, we provide expert Festival tips daily via our open proofing service. Stay ahead of the market and get the best Fred Winter betting insights before the big day!